Lakers vs. Bucks

3 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (20%) · Lakers at 86¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12

Lakers86¢Bucks14¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 20%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$51.56

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 85.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

3 of 15 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers86%

Bucks14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,500

Combined PnL+$12.04

Bucks12 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares9,962

Combined PnL-$63.6

Lakers — 20%Bucks — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBucks 91% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedBucks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bucks 77% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Lakersavg 84.9¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$18.82	61% 922-593 (1515)
PU purplegattoARB<$100	Lakersavg 80.6¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$81.15	69% 2585-1181 (3766)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 80.6¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$94.65
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 14.4¢	$504.59	$491.1	-$13.49
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lakersavg 84.5¢	$1.2K	$794.05	-$4.77	48% 1299-1404 (2703)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 84.5¢	$585	$588.41	+$5.09
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 14.6¢	$214.77	$205.63	-$9.86
VeryLucky888CTR	Bucksavg 14.7¢	$659.99	$629.99	-$30	51% 442-417 (859)
HI hi774cCTR	Bucksavg 14¢	$264.53	$264.53	+$0	14% 75-471 (546)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Bucksavg 15.2¢	$183.78	$168.91	-$14.87	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
FO forecastication4	Lakersavg 89¢	$110.36	$105.4	-$4.96	18% 48-217 (265)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Bucksavg 14¢	$70	$72.5	+$2.5	20% 97-381 (478)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Bucksavg 16.7¢	$82.47	$72.43	-$10.05	22% 33-116 (149)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lakersavg 84¢	$91.27	$62.76	-$1.82	48% 658-706 (1364)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Bucksavg 15¢	$66.68	$62.23	-$4.45	31% 375-842 (1217)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Bucksavg 15¢	$59.87	$55.87	-$3.99	45% 262-316 (578)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Bucksavg 14¢	$38	$38	+$0	59% 3476-2367 (5843)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bucksavg 14.7¢	$31.67	$30.15	-$1.52	37% 340-569 (909)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Bucksavg 15¢	$13.9	$12.97	-$0.93	30% 376-862 (1238)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Bucksavg 15¢	$3.75	$3.5	-$0.25	58% 3212-2312 (5524)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bucksavg 14.5¢	$1.45	$1.4	-$0.05	32% 281-611 (892)

darkumbreon88

Lakers

Invested

$2,819.3

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$18.82

Record

61%

922-593 (1515)

purplegattoARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2,237.26

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$81.15

Record

69%

2585-1181 (3766)

Both legs:

Lakers$1,732.6780.6¢+$94.65

Bucks$504.5914.4¢-$13.49

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1,153.42

Value

$794.05

PnL

-$4.77

Record

48%

1299-1404 (2703)

Both legs:

Lakers$58584.5¢+$5.09

Bucks$214.7714.6¢-$9.86

VeryLucky888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$659.99

Value

$629.99

PnL

-$30

Record

51%

442-417 (859)

hi774cCTR

Bucks

Invested

$264.53

Value

$264.53

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

75-471 (546)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bucks

Invested

$183.78

Value

$168.91

PnL

-$14.87

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

forecastication4

Lakers

Invested

$110.36

Value

$105.4

PnL

-$4.96

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

GC-PCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$70

Value

$72.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

20%

97-381 (478)

OddstormCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$82.47

Value

$72.43

PnL

-$10.05

Record

22%

33-116 (149)

Pan9X<$100

Lakers

Invested

$91.27

Value

$62.76

PnL

-$1.82

Record

48%

658-706 (1364)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$66.68

Value

$62.23

PnL

-$4.45

Record

31%

375-842 (1217)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$59.87

Value

$55.87

PnL

-$3.99

Record

45%

262-316 (578)

NM-PCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$38

Value

$38

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3476-2367 (5843)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$31.67

Value

$30.15

PnL

-$1.52

Record

37%

340-569 (909)

VenusianCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$13.9

Value

$12.97

PnL

-$0.93

Record

30%

376-862 (1238)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

58%

3212-2312 (5524)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.05

Record

32%

281-611 (892)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

3 of 15 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBucks 91% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedBucks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bucks 77% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.