Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 51¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 10

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$117.79

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 50.5¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares12,160

Combined PnL+$251.43

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares9,635

Combined PnL-$133.64

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IA ianf2026	Underavg 49¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$131.69	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 51¢	$4.5K	$4.4K	-$124.85	—
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 46¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$110.55	—
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 50¢	$188	$189.88	+$1.88	—
AY ay118CTR	Overavg 50¢	$188	$186.12	-$1.88	—
RN1CTR	Overavg 51¢	$127.5	$123.75	-$3.75	—
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 46¢	$61.73	$67.04	+$5.31	—
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$65.25	$63.96	-$1.29	—
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$60.99	$60.99	+$0	—
nigiri99<$100	Underavg 49¢	$49	$50.5	+$1.5	—
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$50	$49.5	-$0.5	—
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 51.3¢	$47.56	$46.19	-$1.36	—
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$4.65	$5.05	+$0.4	—
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 48.7¢	$48.41	$1.78	+$0.1	—

ianf2026

Under

Invested

$4,301.71

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$131.69

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$4,489.86

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$124.85

Record

—

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$1,578.24

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$110.55

Record

—

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$188

Value

$189.88

PnL

+$1.88

Record

—

ay118CTR

Over

Invested

$188

Value

$186.12

PnL

-$1.88

Record

—

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$127.5

Value

$123.75

PnL

-$3.75

Record

—

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$61.73

Value

$67.04

PnL

+$5.31

Record

—

NM-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$65.25

Value

$63.96

PnL

-$1.29

Record

—

GC-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$60.99

Value

$60.99

PnL

+$0

Record

—

nigiri99<$100

Under

Invested

$49

Value

$50.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

—

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

—

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.56

Value

$46.19

PnL

-$1.36

Record

—

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$4.65

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.4

Record

—

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$48.41

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0.1

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.