Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 11 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Grizzlies vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (79%) · Over at 48¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 10

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 79%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.0K

Combined PnL

-$15.73

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 47.5¢

-3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares9,958

Combined PnL+$155.14

Over11 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares12,362

Combined PnL-$170.86

Under — 21%Over — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 79% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 50.9¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$154.06	—
nehcnehcCTR	Overavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$144.78	—
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$24.74	—
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$73.56
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$48.82
73 739633786CTR	Overavg 48¢	$681.82	$674.79	-$7.03	—
TX txwd9991CTR	Overavg 48¢	$303	$299.84	-$3.16	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 49¢	$235.84	$228.62	-$7.22	—
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 47¢	$131.65	$133	+$1.35	—
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$82.25	$83.13	+$0.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$49.4	$49.88	+$0.48
AU auros2ARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$90.1	$90	-$0.1	—
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.1¢	$44.2	$47.25	+$3.05
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$45.9	$42.75	-$3.15
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 52¢	$66.9	$67.32	+$0.42	—
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Overavg 48.9¢	$33.04	$32.09	-$0.95	—
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 51.1¢	$24.34	$25	+$0.66	—
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$80.36	$15.35	-$6.45	—
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$11.75	$11.88	+$0.13	—
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$11.94	$11.58	-$0.37	—
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$7	$6.69	-$0.31	—
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$5.5	$4.75	-$0.75	—
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.23	$2.23	+$0.02	—

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$4,992.52

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$154.06

Record

—

nehcnehcCTR

Over

Invested

$4,730.9

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$144.78

Record

—

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,651.85

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$24.74

Record

—

Both legs:

Over$2,40349¢-$73.56

Under$1,248.7350.5¢+$48.82

739633786CTR

Over

Invested

$681.82

Value

$674.79

PnL

-$7.03

Record

—

txwd9991CTR

Over

Invested

$303

Value

$299.84

PnL

-$3.16

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$235.84

Value

$228.62

PnL

-$7.22

Record

—

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$131.65

Value

$133

PnL

+$1.35

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$90.1

Value

$90

PnL

-$0.1

Record

—

Both legs:

Under$44.249.1¢+$3.05

Over$45.951¢-$3.15

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$66.9

Value

$67.32

PnL

+$0.42

Record

—

biying99999CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.04

Value

$32.09

PnL

-$0.95

Record

—

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$24.34

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.66

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$80.36

Value

$15.35

PnL

-$6.45

Record

—

GC-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.75

Value

$11.88

PnL

+$0.13

Record

—

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.94

Value

$11.58

PnL

-$0.37

Record

—

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$6.69

PnL

-$0.31

Record

—

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.5

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 79% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.