Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 221.5

3 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 52¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 11

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$35.9K

Combined PnL

$296

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 15 top traders (20%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$18.6K

Total Shares35,089

Combined PnL+$292.6

Under12 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares35,421

Combined PnL+$3.4

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 52.2¢	$18.1K	$18.4K	+$293.14	49% 95-99 (194)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 47.9¢	$12.4K	$12.3K	-$76.54	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 47¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$52.83	47% 500-558 (1058)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Underavg 47¢	$977.03	$997.82	+$20.79	70% 1655-702 (2357)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 48¢	$725.5	$725.5	+$0	8% 37-420 (457)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$217.37	$219.53	+$2.15	50% 1408-1410 (2818)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 48¢	$216.97	$219.23	+$2.26	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 49¢	$135.63	$137.02	+$1.38	16% 66-347 (413)
nigiri99	Overavg 53¢	$135.15	$133.88	-$1.28	52% 125-115 (240)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$89.77	$90.73	+$0.95	60% 3442-2335 (5777)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 52¢	$76.25	$76.98	+$0.73	47% 148-167 (315)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$35.09	$34.73	-$0.37	53% 323-288 (611)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$21.8	$22.03	+$0.23	31% 170-383 (553)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 48.5¢	$19.4	$19.2	-$0.2	55% 106-86 (192)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.4	-$0.1	24% 157-504 (661)

JoeyAroyyOO

Over

Invested

$18,090.95

Value

$18.4K

PnL

+$293.14

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$12,420.97

Value

$12.3K

PnL

-$76.54

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$2,483

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$52.83

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

SunlineTickerCTR

Under

Invested

$977.03

Value

$997.82

PnL

+$20.79

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$725.5

Value

$725.5

PnL

+$0

Record

37-420 (457)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$217.37

Value

$219.53

PnL

+$2.15

Record

50%

1408-1410 (2818)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$216.97

Value

$219.23

PnL

+$2.26

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$135.63

Value

$137.02

PnL

+$1.38

Record

16%

66-347 (413)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$135.15

Value

$133.88

PnL

-$1.28

Record

52%

125-115 (240)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$89.77

Value

$90.73

PnL

+$0.95

Record

60%

3442-2335 (5777)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$76.25

Value

$76.98

PnL

+$0.73

Record

47%

148-167 (315)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.09

Value

$34.73

PnL

-$0.37

Record

53%

323-288 (611)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.8

Value

$22.03

PnL

+$0.23

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.4

Value

$19.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

55%

106-86 (192)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

24%

157-504 (661)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 15 top traders (20%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.