Spread: Thunder (-3.5)

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (67%) · Trail Blazers at 54¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder46¢Trail Blazers54¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

-$332.77

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 54¢

-5% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

10 of 15 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder46%

Trail Blazers54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers10 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares8,723

Combined PnL-$508.05

Thunder5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,963

Combined PnL+$175.28

Trail Blazers — 67%Thunder — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Trail Blazersavg 56¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$348.24	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 55.7¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$82.69	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 55.7¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$116.21
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 41¢	$463.56	$430.04	-$33.52
XY xyz.ewwCTR	Thunderavg 43.2¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$101.38	—
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 61¢	$753.82	$602.95	-$69.93	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 57¢	$510.54	$516.81	+$6.27	60% 3453-2346 (5799)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 57¢	$285	$267.5	-$17.5
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 42.1¢	$225.54	$249.31	+$23.77
SI Siddhartha1	Trail Blazersavg 57¢	$549.66	$515.9	-$33.75	61% 92-60 (152)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 57.9¢	$419.81	$413.97	-$5.83	55% 541-436 (977)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 57.9¢	$300.21	$292.99	-$7.22
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 43¢	$119.6	$120.99	+$1.39
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 57.3¢	$361.03	$338.2	-$22.82	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Trail Blazersavg 58¢	$329.43	$303.87	-$25.56	51% 3682-3522 (7204)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Trail Blazersavg 56.4¢	$221.04	$209.62	-$11.42	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 56.8¢	$217.98	$188.85	-$15.41	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 56.8¢	$152.61	$143.75	-$11.05
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 51¢	$49.47	$45.11	-$4.36
GC GC-PCTR	Thunderavg 42¢	$156.97	$173.79	+$16.82	17% 75-358 (433)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Thunderavg 43.7¢	$120.82	$141.13	+$20.31	48% 231-247 (478)
VE Venusian	Trail Blazersavg 49¢	$109.76	$119.84	+$10.08	28% 317-800 (1117)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Thunderavg 32¢	$76.19	$110.71	+$34.52	53% 228-199 (427)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 56.7¢	$70.56	$40.1	-$5.96	49% 498-518 (1016)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Thunderavg 41.1¢	$17.28	$19.53	+$2.25	29% 322-773 (1095)
TA takeormake<$100	Trail Blazersavg 57.4¢	$16.08	$15.54	-$0.54	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Trail Blazersavg 55¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	27% 201-533 (734)

HomeRunHazard

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,785.94

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$348.24

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,485.53

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$82.69

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$1,021.9755.7¢+$116.21

Thunder$463.5641¢-$33.52

xyz.ewwCTR

Thunder

Invested

$1,308.53

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$101.38

Record

—

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$753.82

Value

$602.95

PnL

-$69.93

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

NM-PARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$510.54

Value

$516.81

PnL

+$6.27

Record

60%

3453-2346 (5799)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$28557¢-$17.5

Thunder$225.5442.1¢+$23.77

Siddhartha1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$549.66

Value

$515.9

PnL

-$33.75

Record

61%

92-60 (152)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$419.81

Value

$413.97

PnL

-$5.83

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$300.2157.9¢-$7.22

Thunder$119.643¢+$1.39

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$361.03

Value

$338.2

PnL

-$22.82

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Trail Blazers

Invested

$329.43

Value

$303.87

PnL

-$25.56

Record

51%

3682-3522 (7204)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Trail Blazers

Invested

$221.04

Value

$209.62

PnL

-$11.42

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$217.98

Value

$188.85

PnL

-$15.41

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$152.6156.8¢-$11.05

Thunder$49.4751¢-$4.36

GC-PCTR

Thunder

Invested

$156.97

Value

$173.79

PnL

+$16.82

Record

17%

75-358 (433)

SnakeBallCTR

Thunder

Invested

$120.82

Value

$141.13

PnL

+$20.31

Record

48%

231-247 (478)

Venusian

Trail Blazers

Invested

$109.76

Value

$119.84

PnL

+$10.08

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Thunder

Invested

$76.19

Value

$110.71

PnL

+$34.52

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$70.56

Value

$40.1

PnL

-$5.96

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$17.28

Value

$19.53

PnL

+$2.25

Record

29%

322-773 (1095)

takeormake<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$16.08

Value

$15.54

PnL

-$0.54

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

ameisgoat11<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

27%

201-533 (734)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

10 of 15 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.