Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (56%) · Trail Blazers at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 11

Trail Blazers>99¢Thunder<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

-$864.99

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 99.5¢

+45% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers100%

Thunder1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers9 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares9,332

Combined PnL-$610.97

Thunder7 traders

Total Value$457.18

Total Shares1,861

Combined PnL-$254.02

Trail Blazers — 56%Thunder — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 85.7¢	$5.8K	$4.0K	$-1.8K	56% 563-451 (1014)
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 66.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$22.11	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Trail Blazersavg 33.2¢	$730	$1.9K	+$1.2K	53% 234-204 (438)
RN1	Trail Blazersavg 83.6¢	$506.86	$441.62	-$65.23	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 88.8¢	$397.67	$398.83	+$17.58	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Thunderavg 64¢	$229.76	$269.25	+$39.49	61% 910-582 (1492)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Thunderavg 55.2¢	$313.98	$172.19	-$141.8	59% 3145-2227 (5372)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 76.1¢	$102.75	$114.75	+$12
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 55.2¢	$211.24	$57.44	-$153.8
PA Pan9X	Trail Blazersavg 82.9¢	$160.23	$138.46	-$5.34	48% 512-544 (1056)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Thunderavg 45¢	$135.55	$137.05	+$1.51	53% 1703-1483 (3186)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Trail Blazersavg 29¢	$26.1	$89.55	+$63.45	63% 193-112 (305)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Thunderavg 64¢	$23.04	$27	+$3.96	35% 280-514 (794)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Thunderavg 10¢	$17.3	$18.17	+$0.86	62% 2398-1492 (3890)
LI LightParadox<$100	Trail Blazersavg 36¢	$6.48	$17.91	+$11.43	29% 320-793 (1113)
LR lryyy<$100	Trail Blazersavg 87¢	$4.75	$4.65	-$0.11	48% 203-219 (422)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Thunderavg 32.6¢	$294.12	$4.51	-$289.62	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Thunderavg 48¢	$4	$0.79	-$3.21	29% 332-810 (1142)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Thunderavg 9¢	$7.43	$0.41	-$7.02	53% 5580-4967 (10547)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$5,835.8

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,012.08

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$22.11

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Trail Blazers

Invested

$730

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

RN1

Trail Blazers

Invested

$506.86

Value

$441.62

PnL

-$65.23

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$397.67

Value

$398.83

PnL

+$17.58

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

darkumbreon88CTR

Thunder

Invested

$229.76

Value

$269.25

PnL

+$39.49

Record

61%

910-582 (1492)

takeormakeARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$313.98

Value

$172.19

PnL

-$141.8

Record

59%

3145-2227 (5372)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$102.7576.1¢+$12

Thunder$211.2455.2¢-$153.8

Pan9X

Trail Blazers

Invested

$160.23

Value

$138.46

PnL

-$5.34

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Thunder

Invested

$135.55

Value

$137.05

PnL

+$1.51

Record

53%

1703-1483 (3186)

suitcase6628<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$26.1

Value

$89.55

PnL

+$63.45

Record

63%

193-112 (305)

sentrioCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$23.04

Value

$27

PnL

+$3.96

Record

35%

280-514 (794)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$17.3

Value

$18.17

PnL

+$0.86

Record

62%

2398-1492 (3890)

LightParadox<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$6.48

Value

$17.91

PnL

+$11.43

Record

29%

320-793 (1113)

lryyy<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.11

Record

48%

203-219 (422)

6512395314597884CTR

Thunder

Invested

$294.12

Value

$4.51

PnL

-$289.62

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

LimousinCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$3.21

Record

29%

332-810 (1142)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$7.43

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$7.02

Record

53%

5580-4967 (10547)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.