Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5

4 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 73¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

Over73¢Under27¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$42.7

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 73¢

+46% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 16 top traders (25%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,282

Combined PnL+$152.12

Under12 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,094

Combined PnL-$109.42

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 90% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 77% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 50.9¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$261	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 50.4¢	$876.44	$1.1K	+$239.46	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47.9¢	$606.11	$407.56	+$4.79	51% 354-335 (689)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 42¢	$201.94	$348.58	+$146.64	53% 228-199 (427)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$236.66	$246.7	+$10.03	60% 3453-2346 (5799)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$235	$245	+$10	17% 75-358 (433)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 47¢	$127.27	$132.69	+$5.42	48% 231-247 (478)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 48.8¢	$193.84	$109.31	-$84.53	29% 322-773 (1095)
RN1CTR	Underavg 48.3¢	$141.82	$85.05	-$56.77	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 48¢	$56.16	$83.17	+$27.01	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$68.34	$71.25	+$2.91	28% 317-800 (1117)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$41.86	$43.64	+$1.78	48% 515-569 (1084)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 47.1¢	$22.31	$15.37	-$4.09	54% 445-377 (822)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 29.6¢	$9.88	$10.81	+$0.93	55% 541-436 (977)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$3.26	$3.26	+$0	29% 329-806 (1135)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.45	+$0.1	27% 201-533 (734)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,793.12

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$261

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$876.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$239.46

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$606.11

Value

$407.56

PnL

+$4.79

Record

51%

354-335 (689)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$201.94

Value

$348.58

PnL

+$146.64

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$236.66

Value

$246.7

PnL

+$10.03

Record

60%

3453-2346 (5799)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$235

Value

$245

PnL

+$10

Record

17%

75-358 (433)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$127.27

Value

$132.69

PnL

+$5.42

Record

48%

231-247 (478)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$193.84

Value

$109.31

PnL

-$84.53

Record

29%

322-773 (1095)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$141.82

Value

$85.05

PnL

-$56.77

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$56.16

Value

$83.17

PnL

+$27.01

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$68.34

Value

$71.25

PnL

+$2.91

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.86

Value

$43.64

PnL

+$1.78

Record

48%

515-569 (1084)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.31

Value

$15.37

PnL

-$4.09

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.88

Value

$10.81

PnL

+$0.93

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.26

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

329-806 (1135)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.1

Record

27%

201-533 (734)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 16 top traders (25%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 90% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 77% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.