Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Magic (56%). 12 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Magic (-2.5)

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (71%) · Jazz at 44¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 12

Magic56¢Jazz44¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 71%

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

-$122.99

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 43.5¢

-5% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 56%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic56%

Jazz44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz12 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares20,512

Combined PnL-$177.92

Magic5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,021

Combined PnL+$54.92

Jazz — 71%Magic — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperMagic 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJazz 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Jazzavg 46.2¢	$6.7K	$6.5K	-$175.12	70% 1671-717 (2388)
73 739633786CTR	Jazzavg 44¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$17.91	6% 11-189 (200)
PU purplegatto	Magicavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$31.61	69% 2586-1181 (3767)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Magicavg 55¢	$470.48	$470.48	+$0	53% 1821-1628 (3449)
HO HomeRunHazard	Magicavg 54.1¢	$401.95	$419.44	+$17.49	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jazzavg 46¢	$690	$418.05	-$15	52% 464-433 (897)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Jazzavg 44¢	$352	$348	-$4	15% 145-839 (984)
HE hewhodoesit	Magicavg 53¢	$154.35	$160.17	+$5.82	— 5-6 (11)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$97.56	$97.56	+$0	30% 379-881 (1260)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$72.28	$72.28	+$0	51% 1853-1805 (3658)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$57.92	$57.91	-$0	18% 48-217 (265)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Jazzavg 46¢	$51.98	$50.85	-$1.13	31% 385-855 (1240)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Jazzavg 46¢	$39.97	$39.1	-$0.87	45% 267-322 (589)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Jazzavg 44.3¢	$17.62	$17.91	+$0.29	38% 352-584 (936)
PA Pan9X<$100	Magicavg 55¢	$13.75	$13.75	+$0	48% 673-715 (1388)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Jazzavg 43¢	$4.32	$4.37	+$0.05	59% 3477-2368 (5845)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jazzavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.25	-$0.05	32% 297-622 (919)

SunlineTickerCTR

Jazz

Invested

$6,673.57

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$175.12

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

739633786CTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,575.64

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$17.91

Record

11-189 (200)

purplegatto

Magic

Invested

$1,137.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$31.61

Record

69%

2586-1181 (3767)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Magic

Invested

$470.48

Value

$470.48

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1821-1628 (3449)

HomeRunHazard

Magic

Invested

$401.95

Value

$419.44

PnL

+$17.49

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jazz

Invested

$690

Value

$418.05

PnL

-$15

Record

52%

464-433 (897)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Jazz

Invested

$352

Value

$348

PnL

-$4

Record

15%

145-839 (984)

hewhodoesit

Magic

Invested

$154.35

Value

$160.17

PnL

+$5.82

Record

—

5-6 (11)

LimousinCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$97.56

Value

$97.56

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

379-881 (1260)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$72.28

Value

$72.28

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1853-1805 (3658)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$57.92

Value

$57.91

PnL

-$0

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$51.98

Value

$50.85

PnL

-$1.13

Record

31%

385-855 (1240)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$39.97

Value

$39.1

PnL

-$0.87

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

sentrioCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$17.62

Value

$17.91

PnL

+$0.29

Record

38%

352-584 (936)

Pan9X<$100

Magic

Invested

$13.75

Value

$13.75

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

673-715 (1388)

NM-PCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.37

PnL

+$0.05

Record

59%

3477-2368 (5845)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.05

Record

32%

297-622 (919)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 56%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperMagic 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJazz 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.