Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Magic (53%). 11 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Magic (-3.5)

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (73%) · Jazz at 48¢ · $79K held · ends Nov 12

Magic53¢Jazz47¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$78.8K

Combined PnL

$-4.7K

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 47.5¢

-10% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic53%

Jazz48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz11 traders

Total Value$52.5K

Total Shares110,430

Combined PnL$-5.7K

Magic4 traders

Total Value$18.0K

Total Shares34,327

Combined PnL+$990.98

Jazz — 73%Magic — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RJ RJW1CTR	Jazzavg 52.8¢	$56.8K	$51.1K	$-5.7K	47% 118-132 (250)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Magicavg 47¢	$9.0K	$7.7K	+$870.24	70% 1671-717 (2388)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 47¢	$5.1K	$5.7K	+$849.35
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 47¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$20.88
drainedandpoor	Magicavg 52.6¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	-$12.81	47% 414-462 (876)
HO HomeRunHazard	Magicavg 47¢	$4.5K	$5.0K	+$524.37	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
nehcnehc	Magicavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$189.1	25% 21-63 (84)
MA MadridTime	Magicavg 47¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$290.32	31% 385-855 (1240)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jazzavg 49.3¢	$709.75	$629.27	+$2.41	48% 1381-1515 (2896)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 49.3¢	$398.61	$384.1	-$14.09
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 49¢	$228.67	$245.18	+$16.5
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Jazzavg 47¢	$409.75	$413.86	+$4.11	53% 1821-1628 (3449)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Jazzavg 47.5¢	$348.58	$341.31	-$7.27	51% 1853-1805 (3658)
GC GC-PCTR	Jazzavg 47.8¢	$201.7	$200.31	-$1.39	20% 98-382 (480)
NM NM-PCTR	Jazzavg 48¢	$188.87	$190.82	+$1.95	59% 3477-2368 (5845)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Jazzavg 48.5¢	$79.94	$76.72	-$3.22	45% 267-322 (589)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Jazzavg 51.7¢	$59.4	$53.48	-$5.93	67% 1651-806 (2457)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jazzavg 47.9¢	$44.56	$43.24	-$1.32	48% 673-715 (1388)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Jazzavg 48¢	$39.72	$40.13	+$0.41	38% 352-584 (936)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jazzavg 48.5¢	$537.21	$8.64	+$15.31	52% 464-433 (897)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jazzavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.4	-$0.1	32% 297-622 (919)

RJW1CTR

Jazz

Invested

$56,787.02

Value

$51.1K

PnL

$-5.7K

Record

47%

118-132 (250)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$9,042.8

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$870.24

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

Both legs:

Magic$5,116.4247¢+$849.35

Jazz$1,963.1947¢+$20.88

drainedandpoor

Magic

Invested

$5,294.01

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$12.81

Record

47%

414-462 (876)

HomeRunHazard

Magic

Invested

$4,480.97

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$524.37

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

nehcnehc

Magic

Invested

$4,727.5

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$189.1

Record

25%

21-63 (84)

MadridTime

Magic

Invested

$2,480.94

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$290.32

Record

31%

385-855 (1240)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$709.75

Value

$629.27

PnL

+$2.41

Record

48%

1381-1515 (2896)

Both legs:

Jazz$398.6149.3¢-$14.09

Magic$228.6749¢+$16.5

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Jazz

Invested

$409.75

Value

$413.86

PnL

+$4.11

Record

53%

1821-1628 (3449)

FlaznorpCTR

Jazz

Invested

$348.58

Value

$341.31

PnL

-$7.27

Record

51%

1853-1805 (3658)

GC-PCTR

Jazz

Invested

$201.7

Value

$200.31

PnL

-$1.39

Record

20%

98-382 (480)

NM-PCTR

Jazz

Invested

$188.87

Value

$190.82

PnL

+$1.95

Record

59%

3477-2368 (5845)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$79.94

Value

$76.72

PnL

-$3.22

Record

45%

267-322 (589)

RLWGCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$59.4

Value

$53.48

PnL

-$5.93

Record

67%

1651-806 (2457)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$44.56

Value

$43.24

PnL

-$1.32

Record

48%

673-715 (1388)

sentrioCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$39.72

Value

$40.13

PnL

+$0.41

Record

38%

352-584 (936)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jazz

Invested

$537.21

Value

$8.64

PnL

+$15.31

Record

52%

464-433 (897)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

32%

297-622 (919)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

11 of 15 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.