Spread: 76ers (-14.5)

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (53%) · Bulls at 99¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

76ers<1¢Bulls>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$72.89

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 99.5¢

+36% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers1%

Bulls99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls8 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,889

Combined PnL+$902.6

76ers7 traders

Total Value$207.13

Total Shares3,321

Combined PnL-$829.71

Bulls — 53%76ers — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 50% · 2

Aligned

ctr76ers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 100076ers 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Bullsavg 81.7¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$39.27	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Bullsavg 67.6¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$495.71	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Bullsavg 82¢	$972.67	$1.1K	+$115.14	57% 17059-13037 (30096)
BI biying88888	Bullsavg 55.4¢	$376.6	$588.2	+$211.6	47% 242-268 (510)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bullsavg 64¢	$528.67	$474.75	-$53.92	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 64¢	$264.95	$352.14	+$87.18
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 32.3¢	$263.72	$122.62	-$141.1
AN Anon455	Bullsavg 64¢	$320	$335	+$15	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
JU justaluckydude	Bullsavg 69.3¢	$138.25	$173.5	+$35.25	53% 13686-12062 (25748)
65 6512395314597884CTR	76ersavg 34.6¢	$657.66	$71.19	-$586.46	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
PU purplegattoCTR	76ersavg 33¢	$161.22	$52.4	-$0.81	49% 6675-6873 (13548)
LI LimousinCTR	76ersavg 33¢	$117.73	$38.26	-$0.59	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
TA takeormakeCTR	76ersavg 18.2¢	$204.29	$24.6	-$179.69	52% 5560-5183 (10743)
RN1<$100	Bullsavg 95¢	$32.3	$22.75	-$9.55	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Bullsavg 98¢	$11.76	$11.93	+$0.17	53% 3775-3371 (7146)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	76ersavg 30.6¢	$19.28	$7.87	-$11.41	50% 65490-65806 (131296)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	76ersavg 33.7¢	$88.26	$7.48	-$51.77	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	76ersavg 32.9¢	$4.31	$5.32	+$1.01	50% 48590-48183 (96773)

Flaznorp

Bulls

Invested

$1,789.38

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$39.27

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Bulls

Invested

$1,051.26

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$495.71

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bulls

Invested

$972.67

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$115.14

Record

57%

17059-13037 (30096)

biying88888

Bulls

Invested

$376.6

Value

$588.2

PnL

+$211.6

Record

47%

242-268 (510)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$528.67

Value

$474.75

PnL

-$53.92

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Both legs:

Bulls$264.9564¢+$87.18

76ers$263.7232.3¢-$141.1

Anon455

Bulls

Invested

$320

Value

$335

PnL

+$15

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

justaluckydude

Bulls

Invested

$138.25

Value

$173.5

PnL

+$35.25

Record

53%

13686-12062 (25748)

6512395314597884CTR

76ers

Invested

$657.66

Value

$71.19

PnL

-$586.46

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

purplegattoCTR

76ers

Invested

$161.22

Value

$52.4

PnL

-$0.81

Record

49%

6675-6873 (13548)

LimousinCTR

76ers

Invested

$117.73

Value

$38.26

PnL

-$0.59

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

takeormakeCTR

76ers

Invested

$204.29

Value

$24.6

PnL

-$179.69

Record

52%

5560-5183 (10743)

RN1<$100

Bulls

Invested

$32.3

Value

$22.75

PnL

-$9.55

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Bulls

Invested

$11.76

Value

$11.93

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

3775-3371 (7146)

cigarettesCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$19.28

Value

$7.87

PnL

-$11.41

Record

50%

65490-65806 (131296)

Pan9XCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$88.26

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$51.77

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$4.31

Value

$5.32

PnL

+$1.01

Record

50%

48590-48183 (96773)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 50% · 2

Aligned

ctr76ers 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 100076ers 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.