Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bulls, while the market favors 76ers (54%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 76ers (-8.5)

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (64%) · Bulls at 47¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 8

76ers54¢Bulls46¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

-$5.48

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 46.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers54%

Bulls47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers5 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares10,361

Combined PnL+$142.08

Bulls9 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares13,371

Combined PnL-$147.56

76ers — 36%Bulls — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBulls 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	76ersavg 54¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$138.56	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
QU QuentinChenCTR	Bullsavg 46¢	$4.6K	$4.4K	-$149.88	46% 353-407 (760)
nigiri99CTR	Bullsavg 47¢	$745.89	$737.96	-$7.93	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
NM NM-PARB<$100	76ersavg 53.1¢	$584.94	$579.46	-$5.48	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 53.1¢	$332.95	$335.35	+$2.4
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 48¢	$251.99	$244.12	-$7.87
GC GC-PARB<$100	76ersavg 53¢	$346.49	$349.99	+$3.5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 53¢	$185.5	$187.25	+$1.75
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 46¢	$160.99	$162.74	+$1.75
LI LimousinCTR	Bullsavg 45.3¢	$287.05	$294.67	+$7.62	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Bullsavg 46¢	$237.32	$239.9	+$2.58	41% 643-941 (1584)
TA takeormake	76ersavg 53¢	$199.81	$201.7	+$1.89	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bullsavg 46¢	$239.98	$167.78	-$1.02	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
RN1	76ersavg 55¢	$157.66	$154.59	-$3.08	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Bullsavg 48¢	$103.77	$104.9	+$1.13	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
38 38791873984189<$100	76ersavg 53¢	$81.19	$84.49	+$3.3	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
PA Pan9X<$100	76ersavg 51.8¢	$44.52	$40.89	+$1.41	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Bullsavg 44¢	$8.32	$8.79	+$0.47	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bullsavg 46¢	$8.66	$8.38	-$0.28	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bullsavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.45	-$0.25	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

HomeRunHazard

76ers

Invested

$5,300.48

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$138.56

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

QuentinChenCTR

Bulls

Invested

$4,596.32

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$149.88

Record

46%

353-407 (760)

nigiri99CTR

Bulls

Invested

$745.89

Value

$737.96

PnL

-$7.93

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

NM-PARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$584.94

Value

$579.46

PnL

-$5.48

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Both legs:

76ers$332.9553.1¢+$2.4

Bulls$251.9948¢-$7.87

GC-PARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$346.49

Value

$349.99

PnL

+$3.5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

Both legs:

76ers$185.553¢+$1.75

Bulls$160.9946¢+$1.75

LimousinCTR

Bulls

Invested

$287.05

Value

$294.67

PnL

+$7.62

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

BreakTheBankCTR

Bulls

Invested

$237.32

Value

$239.9

PnL

+$2.58

Record

41%

643-941 (1584)

takeormake

76ers

Invested

$199.81

Value

$201.7

PnL

+$1.89

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bulls

Invested

$239.98

Value

$167.78

PnL

-$1.02

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

RN1

76ers

Invested

$157.66

Value

$154.59

PnL

-$3.08

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

LightParadoxCTR

Bulls

Invested

$103.77

Value

$104.9

PnL

+$1.13

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

38791873984189<$100

76ers

Invested

$81.19

Value

$84.49

PnL

+$3.3

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Pan9X<$100

76ers

Invested

$44.52

Value

$40.89

PnL

+$1.41

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$8.32

Value

$8.79

PnL

+$0.47

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$8.66

Value

$8.38

PnL

-$0.28

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0.25

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBulls 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.