76ers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 53¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 7

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.2K

Combined PnL

$669.32

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 52.5¢

+6% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 14 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$29.9K

Total Shares54,294

Combined PnL+$700.35

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,222

Combined PnL-$31.04

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (11 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 49.5¢	$13.3K	$13.7K	+$412.85	54% 18311-15408 (33719)
nehcnehc	Overavg 50.1¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$13.95	61% 4156-2622 (6778)
HI hi774c	Overavg 49¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$85.69	46% 5257-6101 (11358)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 51.6¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$66.69	42% 8079-11282 (19361)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 48¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$24.43	47% 364-413 (777)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Overavg 47.2¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$106.38	50% 546-542 (1088)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 50.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$34.39	64% 10070-5629 (15699)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.4¢	$607.91	$572.65	-$35.27
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.4¢	$432.25	$459.38	+$0.88
SE sentrio	Overavg 49.1¢	$638.45	$674.95	+$36.49	50% 26114-25775 (51889)
GC GC-P	Overavg 49.4¢	$425.28	$430.45	+$5.17	64% 10093-5699 (15792)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 51.1¢	$777.73	$395.49	+$1.08	48% 61940-66801 (128741)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.6¢	$187.03	$202.01	+$19.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.1¢	$207.94	$193.48	-$18.61
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$389.48	$389.63	+$0.14	53% 61790-54064 (115854)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$245	$237.5	-$7.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.9¢	$144.48	$152.13	+$7.64
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 50.7¢	$754.28	$120.92	-$4.51	58% 47081-33963 (81044)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Overavg 47.2¢	$59.52	$63	+$0.63	53% 2621-2316 (4937)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Underavg 54.2¢	$24.39	$22.33	-$2.22	51% 3835-3755 (7590)
NO Notradecopy<$100	Overavg 49¢	$20	$20.41	+$0.41	48% 4038-4324 (8362)
PA Pan9XCTR	Underavg 51.4¢	$116.95	$20.22	+$0.51	54% 10097-8479 (18576)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$5.3	$4.9	-$0.4	52% 8855-8042 (16897)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$13,300.05

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$412.85

Record

54%

18311-15408 (33719)

nehcnehc

Over

Invested

$4,741.95

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$13.95

Record

61%

4156-2622 (6778)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$4,198.87

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$85.69

Record

46%

5257-6101 (11358)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$4,024.5

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$66.69

Record

42%

8079-11282 (19361)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$2,345

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$24.43

Record

47%

364-413 (777)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Over

Invested

$1,809.98

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$106.38

Record

50%

546-542 (1088)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,040.16

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$34.39

Record

64%

10070-5629 (15699)

Both legs:

Under$607.9150.4¢-$35.27

Over$432.2549.4¢+$0.88

sentrio

Over

Invested

$638.45

Value

$674.95

PnL

+$36.49

Record

50%

26114-25775 (51889)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$425.28

Value

$430.45

PnL

+$5.17

Record

64%

10093-5699 (15792)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$777.73

Value

$395.49

PnL

+$1.08

Record

48%

61940-66801 (128741)

Both legs:

Over$187.0348.6¢+$19.69

Under$207.9451.1¢-$18.61

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$389.48

Value

$389.63

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

61790-54064 (115854)

Both legs:

Under$24549¢-$7.5

Over$144.4849.9¢+$7.64

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$754.28

Value

$120.92

PnL

-$4.51

Record

58%

47081-33963 (81044)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Over

Invested

$59.52

Value

$63

PnL

+$0.63

Record

53%

2621-2316 (4937)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.39

Value

$22.33

PnL

-$2.22

Record

51%

3835-3755 (7590)

Notradecopy<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$20.41

PnL

+$0.41

Record

48%

4038-4324 (8362)

Pan9XCTR

Under

Invested

$116.95

Value

$20.22

PnL

+$0.51

Record

54%

10097-8479 (18576)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.3

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.4

Record

52%

8855-8042 (16897)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 14 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (11 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.