Raptors vs. 76ers

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (54%) · 76ers at 75¢ · $60K held · ends Nov 13

Raptors26¢76ers74¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 54%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$60.5K

Combined PnL

$-6.1K

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 74.5¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors26%

76ers75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers7 traders

Total Value$47.3K

Total Shares60,709

Combined PnL$-6.3K

Raptors6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares14,092

Combined PnL+$209.32

76ers — 54%Raptors — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 100076ers 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	76ersavg 77.6¢	$55.2K	$46.7K	$-6.4K	59% 17-12 (29)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	76ersavg 80.1¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$145.07	46% 311-361 (672)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 80.1¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$145.05
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 25.5¢	$720.35	$720.33	-$0.03
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 24.6¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$696.24	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 24.6¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$29.67
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 22.4¢	$279.44	$946.01	+$666.57
GA GaditimaARB<$100	76ersavg 76¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$198.44	48% 82-88 (170)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 76¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 18.5¢	$564.82	$763.26	+$198.44
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	76ersavg 77¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$4.68	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 77¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$41.57
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 22.3¢	$358.84	$402.09	+$36.89
PU purplegattoCTR	Raptorsavg 23.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$84.35	69% 2587-1183 (3770)
OD OddstormCTR	Raptorsavg 20.7¢	$626.39	$742.6	+$116.22	23% 36-124 (160)
fyrskenCTR	Raptorsavg 22.7¢	$636	$700	+$64	—
nigiri99CTR	Raptorsavg 30¢	$796.5	$663.75	-$132.75	52% 128-120 (248)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Raptorsavg 18.9¢	$314.76	$389.23	+$74.47	10% 26-240 (266)
poshposh	76ersavg 77¢	$375.24	$370.37	-$4.87	—
PA Pan9X	76ersavg 70.8¢	$377.56	$104.67	+$29.03	49% 698-741 (1439)
GH ghorrock<$100	76ersavg 75.9¢	$47.15	$47.41	+$0.25	55% 699-561 (1260)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	76ersavg 75¢	$31.5	$31.5	+$0	39% 1055-1631 (2686)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 17¢	$6.46	$9.5	+$3.04	58% 3218-2312 (5530)
RL RLWG<$100	76ersavg 75¢	$7.5	$7.6	+$0.1	67% 1669-826 (2495)
SU suntori<$100	76ersavg 80¢	$1.23	$1.17	-$0.06	—

bigbeliever

76ers

Invested

$55,161.51

Value

$46.7K

PnL

$-6.4K

Record

59%

17-12 (29)

SnakeBallARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$2,790.78

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$145.07

Record

46%

311-361 (672)

Both legs:

76ers$2,070.4380.1¢-$145.05

Raptors$720.3525.5¢-$0.03

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1,928

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$696.24

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

Both legs:

Raptors$1,648.5724.6¢+$29.67

76ers$279.4422.4¢+$666.57

GaditimaARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$2,084.82

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$198.44

Record

48%

82-88 (170)

Both legs:

76ers$1,52076¢+$0

Raptors$564.8218.5¢+$198.44

38791873984189ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$2,037.11

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$4.68

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

Both legs:

76ers$1,588.1377¢-$41.57

Raptors$358.8422.3¢+$36.89

purplegattoCTR

Raptors

Invested

$1,072.49

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$84.35

Record

69%

2587-1183 (3770)

OddstormCTR

Raptors

Invested

$626.39

Value

$742.6

PnL

+$116.22

Record

23%

36-124 (160)

fyrskenCTR

Raptors

Invested

$636

Value

$700

PnL

+$64

Record

—

nigiri99CTR

Raptors

Invested

$796.5

Value

$663.75

PnL

-$132.75

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Raptors

Invested

$314.76

Value

$389.23

PnL

+$74.47

Record

10%

26-240 (266)

poshposh

76ers

Invested

$375.24

Value

$370.37

PnL

-$4.87

Record

—

Pan9X

76ers

Invested

$377.56

Value

$104.67

PnL

+$29.03

Record

49%

698-741 (1439)

ghorrock<$100

76ers

Invested

$47.15

Value

$47.41

PnL

+$0.25

Record

55%

699-561 (1260)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

76ers

Invested

$31.5

Value

$31.5

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1055-1631 (2686)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$6.46

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$3.04

Record

58%

3218-2312 (5530)

RLWG<$100

76ers

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

67%

1669-826 (2495)

suntori<$100

76ers

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0.06

Record

—

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

42h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 100076ers 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.