Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 5 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 212.5

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 49¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 12

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$513.53

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 48.5¢

-19% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,400

Combined PnL-$188.8

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,486

Combined PnL+$702.33

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 55.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$74.51	45% 183-223 (406)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.8¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$188.65
└ Under leg	Underavg 17¢	$131.58	$394.74	+$263.16
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$12.35	53% 290-259 (549)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 64.3¢	$1.1K	$975.63	-$149.68	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
└ Over leg	Overavg 64.3¢	$804.86	$625.47	-$179.39
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.8¢	$320.45	$350.16	+$29.71
LI Limousin	Underavg 42.6¢	$561.15	$678.14	+$116.99	30% 401-920 (1321)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 43.6¢	$505.32	$660.36	+$155.04	31% 412-918 (1330)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 26.4¢	$340.51	$561.84	+$221.34	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 58¢	$634.76	$489.18	-$145.58	55% 719-584 (1303)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 60.7¢	$505.1	$452.05	-$53.05	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 41.8¢	$264.64	$360.74	+$96.1	31% 410-897 (1307)
BI biying88888	Underavg 45¢	$308.7	$353.29	+$44.59	37% 121-203 (324)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 41¢	$185.8	$226.58	+$40.78	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
VE Venusian	Underavg 43.1¢	$166.26	$193.06	+$26.8	31% 410-923 (1333)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 64.7¢	$114.88	$118.95	+$4.07	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Over leg	Overavg 64.7¢	$94.6	$87.75	-$6.85
└ Under leg	Underavg 26¢	$20.28	$31.2	+$10.92
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 63.8¢	$87.83	$66.37	-$3.08	49% 692-733 (1425)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63.8¢	$52.93	$43.57	-$14.72
└ Under leg	Underavg 24.9¢	$11.96	$22.8	+$11.64
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$22.08	$19.55	-$2.53	60% 2613-1718 (4331)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 58.4¢	$7.27	$7.28	+$0.01	39% 394-619 (1013)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 21¢	$2.1	$2.8	+$0.7	55% 680-552 (1232)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,670.65

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$74.51

Record

45%

183-223 (406)

Both legs:

Over$1,539.0755.8¢-$188.65

Under$131.5817¢+$263.16

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$1,506.15

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$12.35

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,125.31

Value

$975.63

PnL

-$149.68

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

Both legs:

Over$804.8664.3¢-$179.39

Under$320.4545.8¢+$29.71

Limousin

Under

Invested

$561.15

Value

$678.14

PnL

+$116.99

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$505.32

Value

$660.36

PnL

+$155.04

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$340.51

Value

$561.84

PnL

+$221.34

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$634.76

Value

$489.18

PnL

-$145.58

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$505.1

Value

$452.05

PnL

-$53.05

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$264.64

Value

$360.74

PnL

+$96.1

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$308.7

Value

$353.29

PnL

+$44.59

Record

37%

121-203 (324)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$185.8

Value

$226.58

PnL

+$40.78

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$166.26

Value

$193.06

PnL

+$26.8

Record

31%

410-923 (1333)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$114.88

Value

$118.95

PnL

+$4.07

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Over$94.664.7¢-$6.85

Under$20.2826¢+$10.92

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$87.83

Value

$66.37

PnL

-$3.08

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

Both legs:

Over$52.9363.8¢-$14.72

Under$11.9624.9¢+$11.64

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.08

Value

$19.55

PnL

-$2.53

Record

60%

2613-1718 (4331)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.27

Value

$7.28

PnL

+$0.01

Record

39%

394-619 (1013)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.7

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.