Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (97%). 9 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Vitesse Arnhem vs. De Graafschap end in a draw?

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 3.0¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 8

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$18.9K

Combined PnL

$-13.3K

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 3¢

-94% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares17,882

Combined PnL+$7.0K

No9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares48,023

Combined PnL$-20.3K

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	Yesavg 45.3¢	$4.9K	$10.6K	+$5.7K	54% 119-100 (219)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 74.9¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$611.4	64% 1253-708 (1961)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 81.8¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$384.61	77% 141-43 (184)
LO looppau	Yesavg 70¢	$596.59	$834.16	+$237.57	99% 15884-134 (16018)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Noavg 23.9¢	$5.5K	$547.75	$-4.9K	47% 6237-6947 (13184)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 89.3¢	$437.87	$428.46	+$18.55	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 73.8¢	$2.9K	$422.47	$-2.5K	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzf	Yesavg 92¢	$421.64	$412.57	+$24.67	64% 663-377 (1040)
dips.	Yesavg 93.8¢	$299.99	$293.54	+$12.03	46% 12136-14078 (26214)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 73.4¢	$5.5K	$165.34	$-5.3K	50% 3041-2982 (6023)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 73.6¢	$4.7K	$148.14	$-4.6K	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
tradecraftCTR	Noavg 65.5¢	$2.1K	$70.33	$-2.1K	51% 6692-6432 (13124)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 74.7¢	$353.5	$10.18	-$343.32	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 74.8¢	$307.79	$8.85	-$298.94	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 73¢	$284.61	$8.6	-$276.01	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 29.2¢	$23.35	$1.72	-$21.63	52% 6060-5587 (11647)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

Yes

Invested

$4,901.03

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$5.7K

Record

54%

119-100 (219)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$1,990

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$611.4

Record

64%

1253-708 (1961)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$1,962.23

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$384.61

Record

77%

141-43 (184)

looppau

Yes

Invested

$596.59

Value

$834.16

PnL

+$237.57

Record

99%

15884-134 (16018)

SlickRick123CTR

Invested

$5,496.41

Value

$547.75

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

47%

6237-6947 (13184)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$437.87

Value

$428.46

PnL

+$18.55

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$2,877.06

Value

$422.47

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzf

Yes

Invested

$421.64

Value

$412.57

PnL

+$24.67

Record

64%

663-377 (1040)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$299.99

Value

$293.54

PnL

+$12.03

Record

46%

12136-14078 (26214)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$5,464.72

Value

$165.34

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

50%

3041-2982 (6023)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$4,739.78

Value

$148.14

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

tradecraftCTR

Invested

$2,143.29

Value

$70.33

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

51%

6692-6432 (13124)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$353.5

Value

$10.18

PnL

-$343.32

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$307.79

Value

$8.85

PnL

-$298.94

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$284.61

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$276.01

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$23.35

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$21.63

Record

52%

6060-5587 (11647)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 97%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.2%

3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2285.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

2385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.