Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 48.5

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$84.92

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 97.5¢

+64% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 15 top traders (33%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,372

Combined PnL+$829.57

Over10 traders

Total Value$149.24

Total Shares3,541

Combined PnL-$914.49

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 61.1¢	$693.27	$1.1K	+$385.57	67% 762-377 (1139)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 58¢	$582.55	$911.87	+$353.72	43% 35-46 (81)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 58.2¢	$146.81	$205.26	+$54.75	42% 132-179 (311)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 57.5¢	$47.69	$78.56	+$30.86	26% 55-158 (213)
CM cm2897CTR	Overavg 42¢	$450.6	$44.4	-$383.81	47% 428-476 (904)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 9¢	$83.57	$43.92	-$40.41	53% 218-191 (409)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 38.5¢	$250.06	$27.26	-$222.8	40% 29-43 (72)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 59¢	$9.86	$14.53	+$4.66	49% 194-203 (397)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$89.22	$7.47	-$81.74	55% 1053-856 (1909)
PR primmCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$80.4	$6.4	-$74	10% 18-162 (180)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 11.1¢	$9.52	$6.18	-$3.34	48% 436-463 (899)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$34.59	$5.22	-$29.37	51% 289-274 (563)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$50.55	$4.68	-$45.87	26% 127-364 (491)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$19.22	$1.94	-$17.28	48% 77-85 (162)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$17.64	$1.76	-$15.88	47% 87-97 (184)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$693.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$385.57

Record

67%

762-377 (1139)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$582.55

Value

$911.87

PnL

+$353.72

Record

43%

35-46 (81)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$146.81

Value

$205.26

PnL

+$54.75

Record

42%

132-179 (311)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$47.69

Value

$78.56

PnL

+$30.86

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

cm2897CTR

Over

Invested

$450.6

Value

$44.4

PnL

-$383.81

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$83.57

Value

$43.92

PnL

-$40.41

Record

53%

218-191 (409)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$250.06

Value

$27.26

PnL

-$222.8

Record

40%

29-43 (72)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$9.86

Value

$14.53

PnL

+$4.66

Record

49%

194-203 (397)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$89.22

Value

$7.47

PnL

-$81.74

Record

55%

1053-856 (1909)

primmCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$80.4

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$74

Record

10%

18-162 (180)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.52

Value

$6.18

PnL

-$3.34

Record

48%

436-463 (899)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.59

Value

$5.22

PnL

-$29.37

Record

51%

289-274 (563)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.55

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$45.87

Record

26%

127-364 (491)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.22

Value

$1.94

PnL

-$17.28

Record

48%

77-85 (162)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.64

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$15.88

Record

47%

87-97 (184)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 15 top traders (33%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.