Spread: Saints (-5.5)

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (53%) · Browns at 86¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 8

Saints14¢Browns86¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

$4.66

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 85.7¢

+59% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Saints14%

Browns86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns8 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares17,681

Combined PnL+$965.94

Saints7 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares13,809

Combined PnL-$961.29

Browns — 53%Saints — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrBrowns 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSaints 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saints 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Brownsavg 50¢	$6.5K	$6.3K	-$193.56	41% 643-941 (1584)
VE VenusianCTR	Saintsavg 50¢	$6.5K	$5.7K	-$839.19	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Saintsavg 43.7¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$464.41	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 43.7¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$561.59
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 57¢	$650.27	$553.09	-$97.18
38 38791873984189	Brownsavg 57¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$1.1K	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Brownsavg 78.5¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$51.91	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
65 6512395314597884	Brownsavg 69.9¢	$437.92	$438.14	+$0.22	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
RN1	Brownsavg 69.4¢	$271.07	$310.51	+$39.44	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Brownsavg 50¢	$216	$216	+$0	56% 195-151 (346)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 50¢	$100	$116	-$5
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 50¢	$100	$100	+$5
AN Anon455	Brownsavg 48.5¢	$97	$120	+$23	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Saintsavg 45¢	$52.46	$73.45	+$20.99	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
RL RLWG<$100	Brownsavg 57¢	$80.63	$59.38	-$21.25	49% 8555-8731 (17286)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Saintsavg 48¢	$85.66	$56.21	-$29.45	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Saintsavg 32.3¢	$121.38	$40.25	-$81.13	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Saintsavg 48¢	$46.08	$30.24	-$15.84	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
GH ghorrock<$100	Brownsavg 62.3¢	$17.54	$22.4	+$4.85	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Saintsavg 33¢	$45.09	$11.21	-$14.06	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Saintsavg 49¢	$7.29	$4.69	-$2.6	54% 19973-16852 (36825)

BreakTheBank

Browns

Invested

$6,451.95

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$193.56

Record

41%

643-941 (1584)

VenusianCTR

Saints

Invested

$6,491.19

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$839.19

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$2,083.28

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$464.41

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

Both legs:

Saints$1,693.8743.7¢+$561.59

Browns$650.2757¢-$97.18

38791873984189

Browns

Invested

$2,146.67

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Browns

Invested

$1,040.09

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$51.91

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

6512395314597884

Browns

Invested

$437.92

Value

$438.14

PnL

+$0.22

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

RN1

Browns

Invested

$271.07

Value

$310.51

PnL

+$39.44

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$216

Value

$216

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

Both legs:

Invested

$97

Value

$120

PnL

+$23

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

LimousinCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$52.46

Value

$73.45

PnL

+$20.99

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

RLWG<$100

Browns

Invested

$80.63

Value

$59.38

PnL

-$21.25

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

GC-PCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$85.66

Value

$56.21

PnL

-$29.45

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

justaluckydudeCTR

Saints

Invested

$121.38

Value

$40.25

PnL

-$81.13

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$46.08

Value

$30.24

PnL

-$15.84

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

ghorrock<$100

Browns

Invested

$17.54

Value

$22.4

PnL

+$4.85

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$45.09

Value

$11.21

PnL

-$14.06

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$7.29

Value

$4.69

PnL

-$2.6

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrBrowns 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSaints 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saints 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.2%

85.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.