Spread: Cowboys (-10.5)

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (86%) · Colts at 84¢ · $86K held · ended Nov 8

Cowboys17¢Colts83¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 86%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$85.9K

Combined PnL

$13.7K

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 83.5¢

+21% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

12 of 14 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys17%

Colts84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts12 traders

Total Value$52.8K

Total Shares68,561

Combined PnL+$4.1K

Cowboys2 traders

Total Value$28.4K

Total Shares62,514

Combined PnL+$9.6K

Colts — 86%Cowboys — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrColts 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Coltsavg 70¢	$29.5K	$32.5K	+$3.0K	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
TA takeormakeCTR	Cowboysavg 30.2¢	$18.8K	$28.3K	+$9.5K	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
HO HomeRunHazard	Coltsavg 69¢	$9.6K	$9.7K	+$62.96	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
unknowngambler	Coltsavg 70.6¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$346.22	57% 442-333 (775)
AN Anon455	Coltsavg 68¢	$3.3K	$3.7K	+$376.15	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
RN1ARB<$100	Cowboysavg 41.7¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$101.34	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 47¢	$1.1K	$2.0K	+$882.19
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 41.7¢	$1.3K	$510.55	-$780.85
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Coltsavg 50¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	+$76.2	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 50¢	$749.75	$1.1K	+$389.87
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 44¢	$738.98	$403.08	-$313.67
RollAwayTheDew	Coltsavg 70¢	$980.21	$1.1K	+$98.02	54% 591-501 (1092)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Cowboysavg 30¢	$601.26	$574.35	+$214.59	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 30¢	$281.63	$403.35	+$205.59
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 54¢	$162	$171	+$9
65 6512395314597884	Coltsavg 63¢	$452.2	$505.41	+$53.21	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Coltsavg 53¢	$444.7	$491.65	+$46.95	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
CM cm2897	Coltsavg 63¢	$315	$417.5	+$102.5	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
AU Aurelius7	Coltsavg 54.7¢	$253.45	$247.69	-$5.76	47% 293-334 (627)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Cowboysavg 30¢	$120	$182	+$62	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
JU justaluckydude	Coltsavg 52¢	$140.18	$176.19	+$36.01	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Coltsavg 50¢	$100	$163.5	+$58.5	56% 195-151 (346)
PA Pan9X<$100	Coltsavg 54¢	$60.69	$37.66	+$15.55	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

nigiri99

Colts

Invested

$29,538.6

Value

$32.5K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

takeormakeCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$18,763.31

Value

$28.3K

PnL

+$9.5K

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

HomeRunHazard

Colts

Invested

$9,631.23

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$62.96

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

unknowngambler

Colts

Invested

$3,493.36

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$346.22

Record

57%

442-333 (775)

Anon455

Colts

Invested

$3,301.25

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$376.15

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

RN1ARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$2,429.08

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$101.34

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Colts$1,137.6847¢+$882.19

Cowboys$1,291.441.7¢-$780.85

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Colts

Invested

$1,651.75

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$76.2

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Both legs:

Colts$749.7550¢+$389.87

Cowboys$738.9844¢-$313.67

RollAwayTheDew

Colts

Invested

$980.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$98.02

Record

54%

591-501 (1092)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$601.26

Value

$574.35

PnL

+$214.59

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Cowboys$281.6330¢+$205.59

Colts$16254¢+$9

6512395314597884

Colts

Invested

$452.2

Value

$505.41

PnL

+$53.21

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Colts

Invested

$444.7

Value

$491.65

PnL

+$46.95

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

cm2897

Colts

Invested

$315

Value

$417.5

PnL

+$102.5

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

Aurelius7

Colts

Invested

$253.45

Value

$247.69

PnL

-$5.76

Record

47%

293-334 (627)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$120

Value

$182

PnL

+$62

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

justaluckydude

Colts

Invested

$140.18

Value

$176.19

PnL

+$36.01

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Colts

Invested

$100

Value

$163.5

PnL

+$58.5

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

Pan9X<$100

Colts

Invested

$60.69

Value

$37.66

PnL

+$15.55

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

12 of 14 top traders (86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrColts 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.