Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (33%) · Cowboys at 69¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Cowboys69¢Colts31¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 33%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$385.31

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 68.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

4 of 12 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys69%

Colts32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,412

Combined PnL+$230.92

Colts8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,708

Combined PnL-$616.22

Cowboys — 33%Colts — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Cowboysavg 55¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$153.63	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Coltsavg 44.1¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$398.4	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Cowboysavg 64¢	$531.69	$685.38	+$153.69	49% 410-432 (842)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Cowboysavg 86.7¢	$474.91	$384.79	-$90.12	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Coltsavg 33.4¢	$290.34	$331.63	+$41.29	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 51.8¢	$140.86	$179.52	+$38.66
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 33.4¢	$149.48	$152.11	+$2.63
VE VenusianARB<$100	Coltsavg 38¢	$423.29	$317.28	+$25.23	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 38¢	$150.12	$171.89	+$5.93
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 49¢	$126.06	$145.39	+$19.3
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Cowboysavg 57.3¢	$244.11	$305.6	+$134.39	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 18.7¢	$95.95	$166.71	+$113.35
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 57.3¢	$117.86	$138.89	+$21.03
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Coltsavg 47.8¢	$507	$302.11	-$204.89	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
BI biying88888CTR	Coltsavg 49¢	$140.82	$125.01	-$15.81	48% 233-252 (485)
PR primmCTR	Coltsavg 38¢	$145.41	$63.25	+$8	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cowboysavg 54.7¢	$45	$52.93	+$13.72	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Coltsavg 48¢	$98	$42.63	-$4.46	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Coltsavg 36¢	$5.76	$5.04	-$0.72	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Coltsavg 36¢	$2.4	$2.61	+$0.21	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
dips.CTR<$100	Coltsavg 36¢	$1.2	$1.05	-$0.15	46% 12092-14003 (26095)

Anon455

Cowboys

Invested

$1,511.02

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$153.63

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Colts

Invested

$1,511.93

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$398.4

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Cowboys

Invested

$531.69

Value

$685.38

PnL

+$153.69

Record

49%

410-432 (842)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Cowboys

Invested

$474.91

Value

$384.79

PnL

-$90.12

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Colts

Invested

$290.34

Value

$331.63

PnL

+$41.29

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Cowboys$140.8651.8¢+$38.66

Colts$149.4833.4¢+$2.63

VenusianARB<$100

Colts

Invested

$423.29

Value

$317.28

PnL

+$25.23

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Both legs:

Colts$150.1238¢+$5.93

Cowboys$126.0649¢+$19.3

38791873984189ARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$244.11

Value

$305.6

PnL

+$134.39

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Colts$95.9518.7¢+$113.35

Cowboys$117.8657.3¢+$21.03

justaluckydudeCTR

Colts

Invested

$507

Value

$302.11

PnL

-$204.89

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

biying88888CTR

Colts

Invested

$140.82

Value

$125.01

PnL

-$15.81

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

primmCTR

Colts

Invested

$145.41

Value

$63.25

PnL

+$8

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

Pan9X<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$45

Value

$52.93

PnL

+$13.72

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$98

Value

$42.63

PnL

-$4.46

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$5.76

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.72

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

dips.CTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

46%

12092-14003 (26095)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

4 of 12 top traders (33%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.