Spread: Rams (-2.5)

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (68%) · Rams at 85¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 8

Rams85¢Commanders15¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 68%

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

-$915.14

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 84.5¢

+51% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralRams at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

13 of 19 top traders (68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rams85%

Commanders16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams13 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares11,844

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Commanders6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares11,350

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Rams — 68%Commanders — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Ramsavg 68¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$465.48	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
65 6512395314597884	Ramsavg 57.6¢	$1.4K	$2.0K	+$601.69	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
AN Anon455	Ramsavg 45¢	$953.33	$1.2K	+$197.33	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Commandersavg 46.1¢	$3.4K	$1.1K	$-2.2K	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
TA takeormakeCTR	Commandersavg 39.3¢	$780.88	$962.99	+$182.11	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Ramsavg 43.9¢	$675.48	$838.47	+$162.98	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ramsavg 53.5¢	$535	$745	+$210	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
nigiri99	Ramsavg 58.1¢	$519.79	$366.54	-$153.25	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
NM NM-P	Ramsavg 61¢	$500	$222.5	-$82.5	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
BI big8betzCTR	Commandersavg 57.2¢	$280.2	$175.89	-$104.31	50% 57-57 (114)
GC GC-P	Ramsavg 61¢	$154.58	$152.86	-$1.72	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
38 38791873984189CTR	Commandersavg 30.4¢	$264.42	$144.71	-$124.27	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
CM cm2897	Ramsavg 53¢	$155.29	$136.25	-$19.04	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Ramsavg 41¢	$24.08	$28.48	+$4.4	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Commandersavg 30.7¢	$45.17	$22.79	-$22.39	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Ramsavg 55.5¢	$18.11	$19.2	+$1.08	55% 681-557 (1238)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	Ramsavg 58.5¢	$17.91	$17.57	-$0.34	53% 685-609 (1294)
dips.CTR<$100	Commandersavg 28¢	$16.82	$9.01	-$7.81	46% 12092-14003 (26095)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Ramsavg 60¢	$1.1	$1.11	+$0.01	54% 19973-16852 (36825)

RN1

Rams

Invested

$1,981.78

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$465.48

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

6512395314597884

Rams

Invested

$1,400.4

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$601.69

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Anon455

Rams

Invested

$953.33

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$197.33

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Commanders

Invested

$3,350.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

takeormakeCTR

Commanders

Invested

$780.88

Value

$962.99

PnL

+$182.11

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

ferrariChampions2026

Rams

Invested

$675.48

Value

$838.47

PnL

+$162.98

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Rams

Invested

$535

Value

$745

PnL

+$210

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

nigiri99

Rams

Invested

$519.79

Value

$366.54

PnL

-$153.25

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

NM-P

Rams

Invested

$500

Value

$222.5

PnL

-$82.5

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

big8betzCTR

Commanders

Invested

$280.2

Value

$175.89

PnL

-$104.31

Record

50%

57-57 (114)

GC-P

Rams

Invested

$154.58

Value

$152.86

PnL

-$1.72

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

38791873984189CTR

Commanders

Invested

$264.42

Value

$144.71

PnL

-$124.27

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

cm2897

Rams

Invested

$155.29

Value

$136.25

PnL

-$19.04

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

justaluckydude<$100

Rams

Invested

$24.08

Value

$28.48

PnL

+$4.4

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$45.17

Value

$22.79

PnL

-$22.39

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

averagejoetraders<$100

Rams

Invested

$18.11

Value

$19.2

PnL

+$1.08

Record

55%

681-557 (1238)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

Rams

Invested

$17.91

Value

$17.57

PnL

-$0.34

Record

53%

685-609 (1294)

dips.CTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$16.82

Value

$9.01

PnL

-$7.81

Record

46%

12092-14003 (26095)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Rams

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.11

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Research grade

NeutralRams at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

13 of 19 top traders (68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.