Spread: Commanders (-2.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (60%) · Commanders at 85¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 2

Commanders85¢Eagles15¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

$639.33

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 84.5¢

+48% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Commanders85%

Eagles16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders6 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares11,492

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Eagles4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares9,068

Combined PnL-$475.89

Commanders — 60%Eagles — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpEagles 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrEagles 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Eagles 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d	Commandersavg 56.4¢	$3.9K	$4.6K	+$727.82	52% 149-140 (289)
RN1ARB<$100	Commandersavg 59.8¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$193.25	54% 57635-49887 (107522)
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 59.8¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$42.64
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 33.5¢	$833.97	$984.57	+$150.6
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Eaglesavg 36.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$51.64	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
EdZachary	Commandersavg 67¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$24.2	41% 102-148 (250)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9	Commandersavg 35¢	$435.4	$821.04	+$404.3	48% 546-599 (1145)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Eaglesavg 58¢	$750	$439.66	-$303.88	46% 380-445 (825)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Commandersavg 64¢	$393.84	$372.3	-$21.54	49% 352-373 (725)
FO forecastication4CTR	Eaglesavg 33¢	$344.01	$354.44	+$10.42	50% 1219-1239 (2458)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Eaglesavg 28.3¢	$397.2	$266.41	-$130.79	53% 11153-9754 (20907)
TO topdogbigboi	Commandersavg 68.3¢	$153.04	$181.44	+$28.4	48% 9522-10247 (19769)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Eaglesavg 41.4¢	$109.27	$102.78	-$6.49	53% 4359-3820 (8179)
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 53.5¢	$43.8	$59.33	+$15.53
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 41.4¢	$65.47	$43.45	-$22.02
RL RLWG<$100	Commandersavg 67¢	$60.3	$60.75	+$0.45	50% 8012-8034 (16046)

0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d

Commanders

Invested

$3,893.7

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$727.82

Record

52%

149-140 (289)

RN1ARB<$100

Commanders

Invested

$4,292.46

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$193.25

Record

54%

57635-49887 (107522)

Both legs:

Commanders$3,458.4959.8¢+$42.64

Eagles$833.9733.5¢+$150.6

UpTheBluesCTR

Eagles

Invested

$1,943.81

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$51.64

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

EdZachary

Commanders

Invested

$1,621.67

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$24.2

Record

41%

102-148 (250)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9

Commanders

Invested

$435.4

Value

$821.04

PnL

+$404.3

Record

48%

546-599 (1145)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Eagles

Invested

$750

Value

$439.66

PnL

-$303.88

Record

46%

380-445 (825)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Commanders

Invested

$393.84

Value

$372.3

PnL

-$21.54

Record

49%

352-373 (725)

forecastication4CTR

Eagles

Invested

$344.01

Value

$354.44

PnL

+$10.42

Record

50%

1219-1239 (2458)

justaluckydudeCTR

Eagles

Invested

$397.2

Value

$266.41

PnL

-$130.79

Record

53%

11153-9754 (20907)

topdogbigboi

Commanders

Invested

$153.04

Value

$181.44

PnL

+$28.4

Record

48%

9522-10247 (19769)

takeormakeARB<$100

Eagles

Invested

$109.27

Value

$102.78

PnL

-$6.49

Record

53%

4359-3820 (8179)

Both legs:

Commanders$43.853.5¢+$15.53

Eagles$65.4741.4¢-$22.02

RLWG<$100

Commanders

Invested

$60.3

Value

$60.75

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

8012-8034 (16046)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpEagles 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrEagles 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Eagles 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.