Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Capitals, while the market favors Senators (51%). 10 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Capitals vs. Senators

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Capitals (67%) · Capitals at 50¢ · $77K held · ends Nov 11

Capitals50¢Senators50¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Capitals

Consensus Traders

Capitals 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$76.6K

Combined PnL

-$126.79

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 49.5¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralCapitals at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Capitals

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Senators 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Capitals50%

Senators51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Capitals10 traders

Total Value$65.2K

Total Shares131,664

Combined PnL+$114.31

Senators5 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares21,248

Combined PnL-$241.1

Capitals — 67%Senators — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Capitals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSenators 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCapitals 75% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Capitals 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Capitalsavg 49.8¢	$48.7K	$48.4K	-$321.27	52% 125-115 (240)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Capitalsavg 47.9¢	$11.7K	$12.1K	+$381.82	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
CH ChonkVision	Senatorsavg 51¢	$10.2K	$10.0K	-$200	54% 177-152 (329)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Capitalsavg 49¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$21.17	25% 215-633 (848)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Capitalsavg 48.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$22.19	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Senatorsavg 52.3¢	$865.37	$684.79	-$31.58	48% 859-937 (1796)
└ Senators leg	Senatorsavg 52.3¢	$560	$535.29	-$31.58
└ Capitals leg	Capitalsavg 50¢	$149.5	$149.5	+$0
OM omnibus-076daa	Senatorsavg 54¢	$412.14	$381.61	-$30.53	37% 191-330 (521)
LI LimousinCTR	Capitalsavg 49.9¢	$280.5	$278.37	-$2.13	25% 213-654 (867)
HI hi774cCTR	Capitalsavg 49¢	$246.14	$251.16	+$5.02	8% 37-420 (457)
SE sentrioCTR	Capitalsavg 49¢	$155.3	$158.47	+$3.17	31% 170-383 (553)
RL RLWG	Senatorsavg 50.7¢	$147.39	$145.32	-$2.07	68% 1591-741 (2332)
WE westing.v1CTR<$100	Capitalsavg 48¢	$92.1	$95.99	+$3.89	5% 3-62 (65)
PA Pan9X	Senatorsavg 53.1¢	$147.24	$88.66	-$8.58	48% 421-450 (871)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Senatorsavg 52.4¢	$73.81	$72.14	-$1.67	53% 323-288 (611)
└ Senators leg	Senatorsavg 52.4¢	$48.09	$45.89	-$2.2
└ Capitals leg	Capitalsavg 49¢	$25.72	$26.25	+$0.52
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Capitalsavg 49¢	$29.4	$30	+$0.6	7% 12-165 (177)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Capitalsavg 50¢	$16.04	$15.88	-$0.16	25% 214-643 (857)
CO cocococococo<$100	Senatorsavg 50¢	$8.48	$8.56	+$0.08	0% 0-30 (30)

nigiri99CTR

Capitals

Invested

$48,734.25

Value

$48.4K

PnL

-$321.27

Record

52%

125-115 (240)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Capitals

Invested

$11,713.29

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$381.82

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

ChonkVision

Senators

Invested

$10,200

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$200

Record

54%

177-152 (329)

MadridTimeCTR

Capitals

Invested

$2,074.21

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$21.17

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Capitals

Invested

$1,723.39

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$22.19

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Senators

Invested

$865.37

Value

$684.79

PnL

-$31.58

Record

48%

859-937 (1796)

Both legs:

Senators$56052.3¢-$31.58

Capitals$149.550¢+$0

omnibus-076daa

Senators

Invested

$412.14

Value

$381.61

PnL

-$30.53

Record

37%

191-330 (521)

LimousinCTR

Capitals

Invested

$280.5

Value

$278.37

PnL

-$2.13

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

hi774cCTR

Capitals

Invested

$246.14

Value

$251.16

PnL

+$5.02

Record

37-420 (457)

sentrioCTR

Capitals

Invested

$155.3

Value

$158.47

PnL

+$3.17

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

RLWG

Senators

Invested

$147.39

Value

$145.32

PnL

-$2.07

Record

68%

1591-741 (2332)

westing.v1CTR<$100

Capitals

Invested

$92.1

Value

$95.99

PnL

+$3.89

Record

3-62 (65)

Pan9X

Senators

Invested

$147.24

Value

$88.66

PnL

-$8.58

Record

48%

421-450 (871)

ghorrockARB<$100

Senators

Invested

$73.81

Value

$72.14

PnL

-$1.67

Record

53%

323-288 (611)

Both legs:

Senators$48.0952.4¢-$2.2

Capitals$25.7249¢+$0.52

PT-S7CTR<$100

Capitals

Invested

$29.4

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.6

Record

12-165 (177)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Capitals

Invested

$16.04

Value

$15.88

PnL

-$0.16

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

cocococococo<$100

Senators

Invested

$8.48

Value

$8.56

PnL

+$0.08

Record

0-30 (30)

Research grade

NeutralCapitals at 50%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Capitals

10 of 15 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Senators 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Capitals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperSenators 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCapitals 75% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Capitals 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Capitals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.