Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-11-08?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 83¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 9

Yes83¢No17¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$23.95

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 82.5¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes83%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,746

Combined PnL+$200.71

No6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares9,070

Combined PnL-$176.76

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 73.4¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$206.15	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 73.1¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$76.5	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 73.1¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$170.5
└ No leg	Noavg 23.3¢	$579.79	$485.79	-$94
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 21.1¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$88.96	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
RN1	Yesavg 82¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$21.28	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Yesavg 71.2¢	$818.32	$762.56	-$55.76	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 71.2¢	$431.81	$482.08	+$44.18
└ No leg	Noavg 28.8¢	$394.04	$280.48	-$99.94
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Noavg 30.3¢	$471.08	$367.5	-$103.58	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
└ No leg	Noavg 30.3¢	$305.08	$196.07	-$109.01
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 78¢	$166	$171.43	+$5.43
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 70.2¢	$336.22	$351.42	+$15.2	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 80¢	$137.32	$138.18	+$0.86	32% 21161-45384 (66545)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$79.95	$78	-$1.95	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$71.07	$63.35	-$7.72	48% 281-299 (580)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 27.2¢	$71.65	$51.37	-$20.28	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Noavg 50¢	$450	$41	-$59	56% 195-152 (347)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 17.7¢	$2.95	$4.1	+$1.15	52% 9525-8636 (18161)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$3.38	$3.16	-$0.22	59% 52427-37141 (89568)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$3,262.83

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$206.15

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,270.81

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$76.5

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

Both legs:

Yes$1,691.0273.1¢+$170.5

No$579.7923.3¢-$94

VenusianCTR

Invested

$1,915.05

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$88.96

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$1,173.62

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$21.28

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

LimousinARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$818.32

Value

$762.56

PnL

-$55.76

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

Both legs:

Yes$431.8171.2¢+$44.18

No$394.0428.8¢-$99.94

LightParadoxARB<$100

Invested

$471.08

Value

$367.5

PnL

-$103.58

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

Both legs:

No$305.0830.3¢-$109.01

Yes$16678¢+$5.43

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$336.22

Value

$351.42

PnL

+$15.2

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$137.32

Value

$138.18

PnL

+$0.86

Record

32%

21161-45384 (66545)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Invested

$79.95

Value

$78

PnL

-$1.95

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Invested

$71.07

Value

$63.35

PnL

-$7.72

Record

48%

281-299 (580)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$71.65

Value

$51.37

PnL

-$20.28

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Invested

$450

Value

$41

PnL

-$59

Record

56%

195-152 (347)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$2.95

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$1.15

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.38

Value

$3.16

PnL

-$0.22

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.