Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Club Universitario de Deportes, while the market favors CD Moquegua (100%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Club Universitario de Deportes (-1.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Club Universitario de Deportes (46%) · Club Universitario de Deportes at 0.5¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 9

Club Universitario de Deportes<1¢CD Moquegua>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Club Universitario de Deportes

Consensus Traders

Club Universitario de Deportes 46%

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

$-3.1K

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidClub Universitario de Deportes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Club Universitario de Deportes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors CD Moquegua 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Club Universitario de Deportes1%

CD Moquegua100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CD Moquegua7 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares12,391

Combined PnL+$594.19

Club Universitario de Deportes6 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares12,175

Combined PnL$-3.7K

CD Moquegua — 54%Club Universitario de Deportes — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	CD Moqueguaavg 51.3¢	$6.5K	$7.1K	+$659.37	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 49.7¢	$3.1K	$2.7K	-$425.91	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 49.3¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	$-1.0K	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
OM omnibus-076daa	CD Moqueguaavg 39.8¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$103.11	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
VE VenusianCTR	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 50.2¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	$-1.3K	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
SE sentrio	CD Moqueguaavg 51.4¢	$815.78	$674.96	-$140.82	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 50¢	$899.04	$289.02	+$290.74	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	CD Moqueguaavg 50¢	$400	$172	-$28	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
SN SnakeBall	CD Moqueguaavg 100¢	$116.48	$98.03	-$18.44	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
ZaiZoiBele<$100	CD Moqueguaavg 66.6¢	$39.39	$58.8	+$19.42	80% 5623-1438 (7061)
LI LimousinCTR	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 50.1¢	$1.3K	$34.93	$-1.2K	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	CD Moqueguaavg 49¢	$12.6	$12.15	-$0.45	52% 9525-8636 (18161)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Club Universitario de Deportesavg 68¢	$10.35	$8.37	-$1.98	53% 2999-2623 (5622)

Flaznorp

CD Moquegua

Invested

$6,451.1

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$659.37

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$3,081.8

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$425.91

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

LightParadoxCTR

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$1,705.76

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

omnibus-076daa

CD Moquegua

Invested

$1,395.08

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$103.11

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

VenusianCTR

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$1,931.07

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

sentrio

CD Moquegua

Invested

$815.78

Value

$674.96

PnL

-$140.82

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

MadridTimeCTR

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$899.04

Value

$289.02

PnL

+$290.74

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

CD Moquegua

Invested

$400

Value

$172

PnL

-$28

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

SnakeBall

CD Moquegua

Invested

$116.48

Value

$98.03

PnL

-$18.44

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

ZaiZoiBele<$100

CD Moquegua

Invested

$39.39

Value

$58.8

PnL

+$19.42

Record

80%

5623-1438 (7061)

LimousinCTR

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$1,267.97

Value

$34.93

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

ameisgoat11<$100

CD Moquegua

Invested

$12.6

Value

$12.15

PnL

-$0.45

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Club Universitario de Deportes

Invested

$10.35

Value

$8.37

PnL

-$1.98

Record

53%

2999-2623 (5622)

Research grade

AvoidClub Universitario de Deportes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Club Universitario de Deportes

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors CD Moquegua 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Club Universitario de Deportes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.