Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Moquegua: O/U 3.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (42%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 9

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 42%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$409.46

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,996

Combined PnL-$712.81

Over7 traders

Total Value$598.32

Total Shares638

Combined PnL+$303.35

Under — 42%Over — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 60.4¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$79.56	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 62.1¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$613.53	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
VI vibing123CTR	Underavg 64.2¢	$590.32	$418.6	-$171.72	52% 1735-1631 (3366)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 36.8¢	$147.01	$398.85	+$251.84	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 76.6¢	$83.74	$109.24	+$25.5	71% 18414-7581 (25995)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 64.1¢	$56.09	$55.57	-$0.52	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 34.7¢	$15.98	$25.3	+$9.32	46% 30580-35679 (66259)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 84.8¢	$21.2	$24.99	+$3.79	56% 39466-31114 (70580)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 38.2¢	$10.92	$23.99	+$13.07	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$21.98	$15.38	-$6.59	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 37¢	$9.25	$9.13	-$0.12	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 36.5¢	$13.22	$6.82	-$0.05	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,526.91

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$79.56

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$2,025.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$613.53

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

vibing123CTR

Under

Invested

$590.32

Value

$418.6

PnL

-$171.72

Record

52%

1735-1631 (3366)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$147.01

Value

$398.85

PnL

+$251.84

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$83.74

Value

$109.24

PnL

+$25.5

Record

71%

18414-7581 (25995)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.09

Value

$55.57

PnL

-$0.52

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$15.98

Value

$25.3

PnL

+$9.32

Record

46%

30580-35679 (66259)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$21.2

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$3.79

Record

56%

39466-31114 (70580)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$10.92

Value

$23.99

PnL

+$13.07

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.98

Value

$15.38

PnL

-$6.59

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$9.25

Value

$9.13

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$13.22

Value

$6.82

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.