Will Académico de Viseu FC win on 2026-11-07?

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 76¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 7

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$315.64

Smart Money Entry

64.7¢ → 75.5¢

+17% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares7,185

Combined PnL+$347.19

Yes3 traders

Total Value$209.21

Total Shares636

Combined PnL-$31.55

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 64.2¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$240.61	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72.1¢	$922.52	$946.65	+$24.13	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
NM NM-P	Noavg 59.7¢	$395.75	$407.35	+$11.6	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-P	Noavg 60.2¢	$389.94	$398.3	+$8.35	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
VE Venusian	Noavg 61.6¢	$264.04	$319.5	+$55.46	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 40.4¢	$166.02	$148.09	-$17.93	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 70.2¢	$99.95	$96.44	-$3.51	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 60¢	$93.97	$96.32	+$2.35	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
RN1<$100	Noavg 68¢	$75	$79.96	+$4.96	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 66¢	$84.67	$63.78	-$3.97	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$45.57	$52.05	+$6.48	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$38.75	$35.63	-$3.13	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$36	$25.5	-$10.5	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 60¢	$18	$13.21	+$0.32	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$10.08	$10.25	+$0.17	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.05	+$0	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 48.5¢	$0.93	$1.18	+$0.25	48% 5549-6067 (11616)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,767.38

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$240.61

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$922.52

Value

$946.65

PnL

+$24.13

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

NM-P

Invested

$395.75

Value

$407.35

PnL

+$11.6

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-P

Invested

$389.94

Value

$398.3

PnL

+$8.35

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Venusian

Invested

$264.04

Value

$319.5

PnL

+$55.46

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$166.02

Value

$148.09

PnL

-$17.93

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$99.95

Value

$96.44

PnL

-$3.51

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$93.97

Value

$96.32

PnL

+$2.35

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

RN1<$100

Invested

$75

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$4.96

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$84.67

Value

$63.78

PnL

-$3.97

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$45.57

Value

$52.05

PnL

+$6.48

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.75

Value

$35.63

PnL

-$3.13

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$10.5

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$13.21

PnL

+$0.32

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$10.08

Value

$10.25

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$0.93

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

5549-6067 (11616)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.