Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Al Hazem SC 0 - 0 Al Nassr Saudi Club?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 1.1¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 6

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$31.8K

Combined PnL

$13.64

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 1.1¢

-98% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$31.6K

Total Shares31,989

Combined PnL+$17.6K

No4 traders

Total Value$293.39

Total Shares25,513

Combined PnL$-17.6K

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HR HRAImail-.-	Yesavg 22.6¢	$3.8K	$16.5K	+$12.7K	85% 17-3 (20)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 95¢	$5.2K	$5.4K	+$212.9	83% 89-18 (107)
morito181	Yesavg 37¢	$1.7K	$4.5K	+$2.8K	61% 875-556 (1431)
DI dips.	Yesavg 94.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$77.18	47% 10622-12135 (22757)
shineforever	Yesavg 33.2¢	$481.05	$1.4K	+$952.28	57% 91-68 (159)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 98.5¢	$965.23	$968.52	+$3.53	— 6-0 (6)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 5.4¢	$33.25	$607.93	+$574.68	74% 111-38 (149)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 39.2¢	$173.46	$437.41	+$263.95	50% 174-171 (345)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 73.5¢	$17.6K	$274.9	$-17.3K	51% 37659-36887 (74546)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$31.8	$9.14	-$22.66	19% 2852-12176 (15028)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 2.1¢	$10.99	$5.9	-$5.09	34% 19139-36791 (55930)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 94.2¢	$282.6	$3.45	-$279.15	58% 46667-33629 (80296)

HRAImail-.-

Yes

Invested

$3,777.63

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$12.7K

Record

85%

17-3 (20)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$5,190.08

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$212.9

Record

83%

89-18 (107)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$1,680.49

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

61%

875-556 (1431)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$1,707.86

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$77.18

Record

47%

10622-12135 (22757)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$481.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$952.28

Record

57%

91-68 (159)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$965.23

Value

$968.52

PnL

+$3.53

Record

—

6-0 (6)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$33.25

Value

$607.93

PnL

+$574.68

Record

74%

111-38 (149)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$173.46

Value

$437.41

PnL

+$263.95

Record

50%

174-171 (345)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$17,559.36

Value

$274.9

PnL

$-17.3K

Record

51%

37659-36887 (74546)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$31.8

Value

$9.14

PnL

-$22.66

Record

19%

2852-12176 (15028)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$10.99

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$5.09

Record

34%

19139-36791 (55930)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$282.6

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$279.15

Record

58%

46667-33629 (80296)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (11 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.3%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4334.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

4434.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.