SK Slavia Praha vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (79%) · Over at 56¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 4

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.7K

Combined PnL

$45.11

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 56.5¢

-5% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares37,270

Combined PnL+$761.35

Over11 traders

Total Value$20.6K

Total Shares34,778

Combined PnL-$716.24

Under — 21%Over — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 41.7¢	$15.0K	$15.3K	+$715.4	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 59.6¢	$9.0K	$8.7K	-$292.86	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 59.6¢	$4.8K	$4.6K	-$165.68	50% 27765-27628 (55393)
CA Cannae	Overavg 59.4¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$95.63	53% 16515-14663 (31178)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 59.5¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$51.81	50% 36333-35815 (72148)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 59.7¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$69.39	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
AN AnonymousUsername	Overavg 57¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$7.83	71% 7095-2847 (9942)
NM NM-P	Overavg 59.5¢	$585	$575	-$10	46% 1301-1520 (2821)
GC GC-P	Overavg 59.5¢	$585	$575	-$10	39% 1335-2099 (3434)
PU purplegattoCTR	Underavg 40.2¢	$505.18	$534.23	+$44	49% 6195-6328 (12523)
SE sentrio	Overavg 59.4¢	$352.93	$338.84	-$11.12	50% 25480-25186 (50666)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 59.6¢	$444.14	$288.17	-$13.88	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
└ Over leg	Overavg 59.6¢	$234.27	$222.05	-$16.16
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$63.84	$66.12	+$2.28
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 57¢	$73.47	$72.83	-$0.64	64% 1890-1047 (2937)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 59.5¢	$44.5	$31.2	-$1.29	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 37.8¢	$15.78	$17.74	+$1.96	51% 7648-7364 (15012)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$15,005.91

Value

$15.3K

PnL

+$715.4

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$9,005.8

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$292.86

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$4,782.74

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$165.68

Record

50%

27765-27628 (55393)

Cannae

Over

Invested

$2,391.98

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$95.63

Record

53%

16515-14663 (31178)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$1,253.65

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$51.81

Record

50%

36333-35815 (72148)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$1,697.23

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$69.39

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

AnonymousUsername

Over

Invested

$1,066

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$7.83

Record

71%

7095-2847 (9942)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$585

Value

$575

PnL

-$10

Record

46%

1301-1520 (2821)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$585

Value

$575

PnL

-$10

Record

39%

1335-2099 (3434)

purplegattoCTR

Under

Invested

$505.18

Value

$534.23

PnL

+$44

Record

49%

6195-6328 (12523)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$352.93

Value

$338.84

PnL

-$11.12

Record

50%

25480-25186 (50666)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$444.14

Value

$288.17

PnL

-$13.88

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

Both legs:

Over$234.2759.6¢-$16.16

Under$63.8442¢+$2.28

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$73.47

Value

$72.83

PnL

-$0.64

Record

64%

1890-1047 (2937)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$44.5

Value

$31.2

PnL

-$1.29

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.78

Value

$17.74

PnL

+$1.96

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.