Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 9 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-11-05?

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 46¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 5

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 45.5¢

-7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$38.0K

Total Shares80,071

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares10,179

Combined PnL+$18.44

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Noavg 48.9¢	$37.2K	$36.1K	$-1.1K	48% 347-378 (725)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 52.2¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	-$11.96	51% 25699-24415 (50114)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 52.4¢	$940.32	$978.52	+$38.2	50% 28405-28303 (56708)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 46.4¢	$992.4	$974.65	-$17.75	64% 9962-5592 (15554)
rayvanmechelen	Yesavg 55.2¢	$969.89	$957.5	-$12.39	53% 2569-2244 (4813)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 45.7¢	$547.5	$550.69	+$3.19	64% 9920-5524 (15444)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 48¢	$191.97	$189.97	-$2	51% 1897-1849 (3746)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 50¢	$182.3	$189.59	+$5.47	64% 1957-1089 (3046)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$178.78	$179.76	+$0.98	53% 16795-14918 (31713)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51¢	$125.4	$129.04	+$3.65
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$53.38	$50.71	-$2.67
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 47.5¢	$177.77	$170.16	-$7.61	48% 61030-65863 (126893)
CI cigarettes	Yesavg 53.2¢	$106.5	$105	-$1	53% 23476-20702 (44178)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Noavg 46.4¢	$34.57	$35.37	+$0.81	45% 1081-1305 (2386)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$34.77	$35.16	+$0.39	49% 285-302 (587)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Noavg 46.4¢	$23.2	$18.2	-$0.4	49% 4474-4672 (9146)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$7.5	$7.05	-$0.45	50% 25801-25492 (51293)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 52.2¢	$3.13	$3.12	+$0.03	50% 21147-21407 (42554)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.6	+$0.1	52% 8754-7963 (16717)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Invested

$37,152.72

Value

$36.1K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

48%

347-378 (725)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$3,171.04

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$11.96

Record

51%

25699-24415 (50114)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$940.32

Value

$978.52

PnL

+$38.2

Record

50%

28405-28303 (56708)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$992.4

Value

$974.65

PnL

-$17.75

Record

64%

9962-5592 (15554)

rayvanmechelen

Yes

Invested

$969.89

Value

$957.5

PnL

-$12.39

Record

53%

2569-2244 (4813)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$547.5

Value

$550.69

PnL

+$3.19

Record

64%

9920-5524 (15444)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$191.97

Value

$189.97

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

1897-1849 (3746)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$182.3

Value

$189.59

PnL

+$5.47

Record

64%

1957-1089 (3046)

CannaeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$178.78

Value

$179.76

PnL

+$0.98

Record

53%

16795-14918 (31713)

Both legs:

Yes$125.451¢+$3.65

No$53.3850¢-$2.67

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$177.77

Value

$170.16

PnL

-$7.61

Record

48%

61030-65863 (126893)

cigarettes

Yes

Invested

$106.5

Value

$105

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

23476-20702 (44178)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Invested

$34.57

Value

$35.37

PnL

+$0.81

Record

45%

1081-1305 (2386)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Invested

$34.77

Value

$35.16

PnL

+$0.39

Record

49%

285-302 (587)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Invested

$23.2

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

4474-4672 (9146)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$0.45

Record

50%

25801-25492 (51293)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.13

Value

$3.12

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

21147-21407 (42554)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

8754-7963 (16717)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.