Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $428 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$428

Combined PnL

$-5.0K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.1¢

-91% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$428

Total Shares855,994

Combined PnL$-5.0K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

222h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$3.6K	$320.7	$-3.8K	67% 751-378 (1129)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$619.34	$46.54	-$659.75	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$321.09	$30.1	-$281.44	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$118.11	$15	-$103.11	64% 154-88 (242)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$3.23	$5.67	-$63.47	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$51.02	$3.27	-$47.83	47% 83-94 (177)
fireponbabylonCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$21.49	$2	-$18.47	43% 370-481 (851)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$1.67	+$1.67	26% 351-985 (1336)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$11.09	$1.1	-$9.99	68% 2074-957 (3031)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$1	+$1	41% 648-925 (1573)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$0.75	-$5.16	58% 1153-825 (1978)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$0.2	$0.2	+$0.2	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$3,564.3

Value

$320.7

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$619.34

Value

$46.54

PnL

-$659.75

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$321.09

Value

$30.1

PnL

-$281.44

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.11

Value

$15

PnL

-$103.11

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$5.67

PnL

-$63.47

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.02

Value

$3.27

PnL

-$47.83

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

fireponbabylonCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.49

Value

PnL

-$18.47

Record

43%

370-481 (851)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$1.67

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.09

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$9.99

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$1

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$5.16

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

222h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.