Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 11¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 4

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$-3.7K

Smart Money Entry

21.1¢ → 10.5¢

-50% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares34,758

Combined PnL$-4.0K

No6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,894

Combined PnL+$301.77

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 20.5¢	$4.7K	$2.4K	$-2.3K	39% 196-304 (500)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 88¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	+$24.89	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
CO cowcat	Noavg 85¢	$310.65	$1.1K	+$196.15	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 81¢	$364.5	$750.22	+$81.14	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
AN anoin123CTR	Yesavg 18.8¢	$1.1K	$628.69	-$497.57	47% 474-534 (1008)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 27.4¢	$1.5K	$568.67	$-1.2K	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Noavg 90.3¢	$141.47	$135.1	-$7.04	40% 174-265 (439)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$71.42	$69.96	-$3.13	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Noavg 73.8¢	$29.43	$36	+$6.57	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
RelaccsedCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.8¢	$22.96	$9.44	-$13.96	56% 1213-967 (2180)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Noavg 80.7¢	$9.1	$9.16	+$0.06	50% 356-357 (713)
DE dedidancCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$5.25	$3.85	-$1.58	57% 103-77 (180)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,680.61

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$1,585.39

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$24.89

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

cowcat

Invested

$310.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$196.15

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$364.5

Value

$750.22

PnL

+$81.14

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

anoin123CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,126.27

Value

$628.69

PnL

-$497.57

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,547.4

Value

$568.67

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Invested

$141.47

Value

$135.1

PnL

-$7.04

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.42

Value

$69.96

PnL

-$3.13

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Invested

$29.43

Value

$36

PnL

+$6.57

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

RelaccsedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.96

Value

$9.44

PnL

-$13.96

Record

56%

1213-967 (2180)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

$9.16

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

356-357 (713)

dedidancCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.25

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$1.58

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.9%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$739.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

839.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.