Consensus PnL $1.5M · win rate 73% (685–247, n=932) · PM monthly #813 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.5M
Record
685W / 247L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 932 settled
Batting Avg
53.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#623
Source
PM monthly #813 + pinned
Trades
39,654
Markets
1,667
Volume
$39.5M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 12 on the consensus side (75%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $111K · now 65¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $83K · now 84¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No $36K · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (92% of 26)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $30K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $16K · now 71¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $16K · now 70¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?No $9.7K · now 97¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (95% of 21)
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?No $9.6K · now 96¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
Specialties
1,096 settled consensus markets · held side won 72% at an average entry of 66¢- Politics
+10 pts
side won 84% of 140 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +5%
- Mentions
+8 pts
side won 72% of 304 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +5%
- Crypto
+5 pts
side won 76% of 119 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 58% of 12 at an average 63¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +12%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 16% of 248)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 49% of 102)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 69% of 117)
- 70¢ and up: 57%(won 98% of 629)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.