Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 63¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 31

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$3.98

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 62.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$594.51

Total Shares948

Combined PnL-$9.5

No9 traders

Total Value$337.03

Total Shares899

Combined PnL+$13.48

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

596h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taemaxx	Yesavg 64¢	$479.99	$468.74	-$11.25	— 2-1 (3)
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 36¢	$100.8	$105	+$4.2	53% 5671-5100 (10771)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 62.9¢	$107.92	$88.74	-$0.87	51% 40-38 (78)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$83.83	$83	-$0.83	3% 1-31 (32)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63¢	$52.29	$51.88	-$0.41
└ No leg	Noavg 38¢	$31.54	$31.13	-$0.41
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$61.2	$63.75	+$2.55	84% 43-8 (51)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$36	$37.5	+$1.5	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 58.1¢	$34.41	$37.03	+$2.62	41% 3122-4487 (7609)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$29.16	$30.38	+$1.21	80% 48-12 (60)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$28.78	$29.98	+$1.2	51% 4655-4529 (9184)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$26.58	$27.68	+$1.11	26% 860-2483 (3343)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$23.03	$23.99	+$0.96	17% 76-374 (450)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$10.8	$11.25	+$0.45	40% 1456-2158 (3614)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$7.2	$7.5	+$0.3	27% 936-2514 (3450)

taemaxx

Yes

Invested

$479.99

Value

$468.74

PnL

-$11.25

Record

—

2-1 (3)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$100.8

Value

$105

PnL

+$4.2

Record

53%

5671-5100 (10771)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$107.92

Value

$88.74

PnL

-$0.87

Record

51%

40-38 (78)

WarriorHARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.83

Value

$83

PnL

-$0.83

Record

1-31 (32)

Both legs:

Yes$52.2963¢-$0.41

No$31.5438¢-$0.41

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$61.2

Value

$63.75

PnL

+$2.55

Record

84%

43-8 (51)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$37.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.41

Value

$37.03

PnL

+$2.62

Record

41%

3122-4487 (7609)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$29.16

Value

$30.38

PnL

+$1.21

Record

80%

48-12 (60)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$28.78

Value

$29.98

PnL

+$1.2

Record

51%

4655-4529 (9184)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$26.58

Value

$27.68

PnL

+$1.11

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$23.03

Value

$23.99

PnL

+$0.96

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$10.8

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$0.45

Record

40%

1456-2158 (3614)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

596h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.