Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $203 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$203.45

Combined PnL

-$403.51

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.1¢

-78% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$203.45

Total Shares103,354

Combined PnL-$403.51

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

198 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Q9 Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$256.24	$106.68	-$149.56	41% 166-240 (406)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$199.55	$50	-$149.55	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$49.2	$13.16	-$36.04	67% 751-378 (1129)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$50.79	$9.77	-$41.1	47% 83-94 (177)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.67	$6.66	+$5	26% 351-985 (1336)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$13	$4	-$9	69% 987-450 (1437)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1	$4	+$3	41% 648-925 (1573)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yes	$777.08	$3.46	-$11.86	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$3	-$3.66	58% 1153-825 (1978)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$11.23	$1.99	-$9.24	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.91	$0.67	-$1.55	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.07	+$0.05	76% 8934-2819 (11753)

Q96s3kwozynxpauCTR

Yes

Invested

$256.24

Value

$106.68

PnL

-$149.56

Record

41%

166-240 (406)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$199.55

Value

$50

PnL

-$149.55

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.2

Value

$13.16

PnL

-$36.04

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.79

Value

$9.77

PnL

-$41.1

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$5

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

bernardbulletinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13

Value

PnL

-$9

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$3

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$777.08

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$11.86

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

PnL

-$3.66

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.23

Value

$1.99

PnL

-$9.24

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$1.55

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,118.5

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.05

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

198 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.