Consensus PnL $61K · win rate 67% (226–111, n=337) · was PM monthly #933 · holds 24 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$60.6K
Record
226W / 111L
Win Rate
67.0%
of 337 settled
Batting Avg
54.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#847
Source
PM monthly #933
Trades
668
Markets
410
Volume
$2.6M
Top consensus positions
24 in listed consensus markets · 21 of 24 on the consensus side (88%)- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No $28K · now 95¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (75% of 20)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $17K · now 84¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $15K · now 89¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $14K · now 72¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $11K · now 97¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (74% of 35)
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No $10K · now 97¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (39% of 76)
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No $9.1K · now 97¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (68% of 34)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $8.7K · now 71¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
Specialties
322 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 64¢- Culture
+39 pts
side won 82% of 11 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +29%
- Geopolitics
+13 pts
side won 84% of 73 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +19%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 71% of 76 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 61% of 18 at an average 63¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 17% of 48)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 54% of 39)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 73% of 71)
- 70¢ and up: 51%(won 94% of 164)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.