Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $495 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$495.17

Combined PnL

$-10.8K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.3¢

-59% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$495.16

Total Shares198,066

Combined PnL$-10.8K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

205 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$157.37	$133.61	-$23.76	40% 704-1061 (1765)
PL plumbisCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$200	$125	-$75	57% 51-39 (90)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$351.23	$117.36	-$233.87	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$38.0K	$54.75	$-10.4K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$100	$25	-$75	57% 766-585 (1351)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$49.89	$15.99	-$33.97	47% 83-94 (177)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$8.33	+$8.33	26% 351-985 (1336)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0	$5	+$5	41% 648-925 (1573)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$804.27	$3.85	-$7.46	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.91	$3.75	-$2.16	58% 1153-825 (1978)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$10	$2.09	-$7.91	57% 1113-837 (1950)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.91	$0.43	-$0.62	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$157.37

Value

$133.61

PnL

-$23.76

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

plumbisCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$125

PnL

-$75

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$351.23

Value

$117.36

PnL

-$233.87

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$38,014.67

Value

$54.75

PnL

$-10.4K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$25

PnL

-$75

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.89

Value

$15.99

PnL

-$33.97

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

failstoberCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.97

Value

$8.33

PnL

+$8.33

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$5

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$804.27

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$7.46

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

QualitativeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$2.16

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$2.09

PnL

-$7.91

Record

57%

1113-837 (1950)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0.62

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

205 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7596.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

7696.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.