Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $363 held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$362.73

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

0.8¢ → 0.1¢

-80% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$362.73

Total Shares241,822

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

214 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
siickCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$660	$150	-$509.98	57% 767-580 (1347)
TR tradexplorerCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$900	$150	-$750	60% 291-194 (485)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$102.36	$39	-$63.36	67% 751-378 (1129)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$42.3	$8.37	-$33.93	39% 965-1508 (2473)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$33.92	$6.52	-$27.45	47% 83-94 (177)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$4.26	$4.75	-$13.07	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$13.53	$2.69	-$10.84	41% 648-925 (1573)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$1.82	$0.6	-$1.22	68% 2074-957 (3031)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.36	$0.36	-$1.53	7% 14-187 (201)
HO HourglassCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.28	+$0.28	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$3.6K	$0.13	-$66.9	76% 8934-2819 (11753)
VI VivianWardCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	+$0.03	86% 3499-571 (4070)

siickCTR

Yes

Invested

$660

Value

$150

PnL

-$509.98

Record

57%

767-580 (1347)

tradexplorerCTR

Yes

Invested

$900

Value

$150

PnL

-$750

Record

60%

291-194 (485)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMACTR

Yes

Invested

$102.36

Value

$39

PnL

-$63.36

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.3

Value

$8.37

PnL

-$33.93

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.92

Value

$6.52

PnL

-$27.45

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$13.07

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.53

Value

$2.69

PnL

-$10.84

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$1.22

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$1.53

Record

14-187 (201)

HourglassCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,112.73

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.28

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

NoMoreMisterCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,562.88

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$66.9

Record

76%

8934-2819 (11753)

VivianWardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

86%

3499-571 (4070)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

214 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.