Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (67%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 34¢ · $93K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$92.8K

Combined PnL

-$420.12

Smart Money Entry

40.1¢ → 33.5¢

-16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares31,269

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares11,061

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

4920h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

37 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnoorrasonARB<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$182.17	$75.0K	+$0.07	39% 1203-1904 (3107)
└ Yes leg	Yes	$49.1K	$49.1K	+$12.4K
└ No leg	Noavg 46.5¢	$34.9K	$25.9K	$-12.4K
MO Monopoly_MoneyCTR	Noavg 39.5¢	$7.9K	$6.7K	$-1.2K	62% 159-96 (255)
11 11122CTR	Noavg 40.9¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$48.98	43% 1406-1854 (3260)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 58.8¢	$1.5K	$2.5K	+$340.99	71% 6979-2788 (9767)
RE rebotsliaf	Yesavg 58.4¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$240.15	24% 185-572 (757)
FA failstober	Yesavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$343.2	26% 351-985 (1336)
ScottyNooo	Yesavg 57.1¢	$647.43	$749.33	+$101.89	50% 1541-1520 (3061)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR	Noavg 43¢	$697.3	$522.22	-$175.08	61% 1366-891 (2257)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 63.2¢	$233.79	$242.42	+$12.34	53% 7830-6946 (14776)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 55¢	$1.63	$136.61	+$15.77	77% 11960-3646 (15606)
AN ancianoCTR	Noavg 37.2¢	$135.52	$124.2	-$11.31	52% 1173-1078 (2251)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	No	$76.11	$76.11	-$27.77	54% 22016-19110 (41126)

SnoorrasonARB<$100

Invested

$182.17

Value

$75.0K

PnL

+$0.07

Record

39%

1203-1904 (3107)

Both legs:

Yes$49,125—+$12.4K

No$34,872.5646.5¢$-12.4K

Monopoly_MoneyCTR

Invested

$7,944.78

Value

$6.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

62%

159-96 (255)

11122CTR

Invested

$3,179.63

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$48.98

Record

43%

1406-1854 (3260)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$1,486.08

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$340.99

Record

71%

6979-2788 (9767)

rebotsliaf

Yes

Invested

$1,692.13

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$240.15

Record

24%

185-572 (757)

failstober

Yes

Invested

$1,321.95

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$343.2

Record

26%

351-985 (1336)

ScottyNooo

Yes

Invested

$647.43

Value

$749.33

PnL

+$101.89

Record

50%

1541-1520 (3061)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR

Invested

$697.3

Value

$522.22

PnL

-$175.08

Record

61%

1366-891 (2257)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$233.79

Value

$242.42

PnL

+$12.34

Record

53%

7830-6946 (14776)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$1.63

Value

$136.61

PnL

+$15.77

Record

77%

11960-3646 (15606)

ancianoCTR

Invested

$135.52

Value

$124.2

PnL

-$11.31

Record

52%

1173-1078 (2251)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$76.11

Value

$76.11

PnL

-$27.77

Record

54%

22016-19110 (41126)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

4920h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

37 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.4%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$182.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

282.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.