Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 97¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 3

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$494.04

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 96.5¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares11,197

Combined PnL+$510.42

No3 traders

Total Value$21.47

Total Shares682

Combined PnL-$16.38

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

2960h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Yesavg 97¢	$5.1K	$4.9K	-$8.96	89% 1665-205 (1870)
QM QMG-CORE	Yesavg 96.5¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$3.74	77% 1408-416 (1824)
bernardbulletin	Yesavg 88.3¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$96.96	69% 987-450 (1437)
Gohst	Yesavg 36¢	$234.19	$627.75	+$395.84	49% 738-770 (1508)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 93.9¢	$227.84	$234.03	+$6.19	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
probability	Yesavg 94.4¢	$134.75	$137.74	+$3.43	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
Ryxon21	Yesavg 89¢	$106	$114.92	+$9.34	71% 318-130 (448)
CO cowcatARB<$100	Noavg 6.4¢	$147.62	$83.65	-$63.9	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
└ No leg	Noavg 6.4¢	$127.25	$62.78	-$64.47
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 94.2¢	$20.37	$20.87	+$0.57
DEGENKHAN<$100	Yesavg 89.6¢	$50.1	$53.98	+$3.88	66% 1107-565 (1672)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 3.8¢	$9.98	$8.28	-$1.7	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Noavg 10.7¢	$3.24	$6.79	-$14.99	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$6.09	$6.39	+$0.3	54% 8322-7007 (15329)

elmcap2

Yes

Invested

$5,066.12

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$8.96

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

QMG-CORE

Yes

Invested

$3,622.52

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$3.74

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

bernardbulletin

Yes

Invested

$1,029.38

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$96.96

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

Gohst

Yes

Invested

$234.19

Value

$627.75

PnL

+$395.84

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$227.84

Value

$234.03

PnL

+$6.19

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

probability

Yes

Invested

$134.75

Value

$137.74

PnL

+$3.43

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$106

Value

$114.92

PnL

+$9.34

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

cowcatARB<$100

Invested

$147.62

Value

$83.65

PnL

-$63.9

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Both legs:

Invested

$50.1

Value

$53.98

PnL

+$3.88

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$8.28

PnL

-$1.7

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Invested

$3.24

Value

$6.79

PnL

-$14.99

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Invested

$6.09

Value

$6.39

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

8322-7007 (15329)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

2960h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.