Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 96¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$139.51

Smart Money Entry

93.2¢ → 95.9¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,832

Combined PnL+$155.84

No3 traders

Total Value$51.32

Total Shares1,246

Combined PnL-$16.33

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AngryRhino	Yesavg 93¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$76.58	69% 133-59 (192)
elmcap2	Yesavg 94.1¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	+$38.48	89% 1665-205 (1870)
QM QMG-CORE	Yesavg 90¢	$450	$478.5	+$30.25	77% 1408-416 (1824)
probability	Yesavg 93.5¢	$164.49	$168.36	+$4.13	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$84	$84.61	+$0.61	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 93.8¢	$35.45	$35.19	+$0.81	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 4.3¢	$34.44	$32.78	-$1.65	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 87.5¢	$30.73	$31.61	+$3.05	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
IN insidero<$100	Yesavg 95.1¢	$29.86	$30.05	+$0.3	76% 291-93 (384)
DE dedidanc<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$15.66	$17.23	+$1.63	57% 103-77 (180)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$20.22	$14.49	-$5.73	45% 1905-2348 (4253)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$13	$4.05	-$8.95	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

AngryRhino

Yes

Invested

$2,335.02

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$76.58

Record

69%

133-59 (192)

elmcap2

Yes

Invested

$2,437.8

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$38.48

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

QMG-CORE

Yes

Invested

$450

Value

$478.5

PnL

+$30.25

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

probability

Yes

Invested

$164.49

Value

$168.36

PnL

+$4.13

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$84

Value

$84.61

PnL

+$0.61

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.45

Value

$35.19

PnL

+$0.81

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$34.44

Value

$32.78

PnL

-$1.65

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.73

Value

$31.61

PnL

+$3.05

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

insidero<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.86

Value

$30.05

PnL

+$0.3

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

dedidanc<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.66

Value

$17.23

PnL

+$1.63

Record

57%

103-77 (180)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$20.22

Value

$14.49

PnL

-$5.73

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$8.95

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.