Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Mar 15, 2027

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Mon, Mar 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$147.11

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 55¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,376

Combined PnL+$18.66

Yes3 traders

Total Value$448.85

Total Shares997

Combined PnL-$165.78

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+35 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

580h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 56.7¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$148.53	14% 503-3047 (3550)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.7¢	$678.93	$550.46	-$136.4
└ No leg	Noavg 44.5¢	$532.83	$520.54	-$12.14
HaradwaithARB<$100	Yesavg 54.3¢	$3.2K	$734.25	-$113.54	41% 6357-9331 (15688)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.3¢	$633.64	$525.12	-$108.6
└ No leg	Noavg 45.2¢	$217.17	$209.13	-$4.95
BU buoys	Noavg 57.2¢	$473.83	$455.48	-$18.35	46% 734-847 (1581)
AU auros2	Noavg 46¢	$349.88	$418.79	+$68.9	—
ifyoulovemeCTR	Yesavg 63.5¢	$319.06	$320.1	-$131.41	55% 331-275 (606)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Noavg 40.5¢	$157.62	$169.09	+$11.48	48% 1326-1421 (2747)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 45¢	$379.78	$88.53	-$33.76	17% 1282-6085 (7367)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR	Yesavg 54¢	$112.86	$72.61	-$18.33	25% 1740-5344 (7084)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100	Yesavg 57.9¢	$72.17	$56.14	-$16.03	70% 1151-492 (1643)
LornaPredicts	Noavg 48.1¢	$404.93	$50.07	-$13.75	20% 2762-10914 (13676)
SH shiifoo<$100	Noavg 45.4¢	$37.49	$39.35	+$1.86	59% 3791-2625 (6416)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 46.6¢	$11.35	$9.38	-$1.43	58% 20201-14846 (35047)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 44.4¢	$19.33	$8.63	+$3.73	77% 12489-3829 (16318)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,277.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$148.53

Record

14%

503-3047 (3550)

Both legs:

Yes$678.9356.7¢-$136.4

No$532.8344.5¢-$12.14

HaradwaithARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,207.41

Value

$734.25

PnL

-$113.54

Record

41%

6357-9331 (15688)

Both legs:

Yes$633.6454.3¢-$108.6

No$217.1745.2¢-$4.95

buoys

Invested

$473.83

Value

$455.48

PnL

-$18.35

Record

46%

734-847 (1581)

auros2

Invested

$349.88

Value

$418.79

PnL

+$68.9

Record

—

ifyoulovemeCTR

Yes

Invested

$319.06

Value

$320.1

PnL

-$131.41

Record

55%

331-275 (606)

SnapElectionAvoider

Invested

$157.62

Value

$169.09

PnL

+$11.48

Record

48%

1326-1421 (2747)

WarriorH

Invested

$379.78

Value

$88.53

PnL

-$33.76

Record

17%

1282-6085 (7367)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR

Yes

Invested

$112.86

Value

$72.61

PnL

-$18.33

Record

25%

1740-5344 (7084)

bernardbulletinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.17

Value

$56.14

PnL

-$16.03

Record

70%

1151-492 (1643)

LornaPredicts

Invested

$404.93

Value

$50.07

PnL

-$13.75

Record

20%

2762-10914 (13676)

shiifoo<$100

Invested

$37.49

Value

$39.35

PnL

+$1.86

Record

59%

3791-2625 (6416)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.35

Value

$9.38

PnL

-$1.43

Record

58%

20201-14846 (35047)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$19.33

Value

$8.63

PnL

+$3.73

Record

77%

12489-3829 (16318)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+35 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

580h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.