Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rebeka Masarova, while the market favors Bianca Andreescu (57%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Sopo: Bianca Andreescu vs Rebeka Masarova

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Rebeka Masarova (62%) · Rebeka Masarova at 43¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 17

Bianca Andreescu57¢Rebeka Masarova43¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rebeka Masarova

Consensus Traders

Rebeka Masarova 62%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.3K

Combined PnL

$3.5K

Smart Money Entry

28.6¢ → 42.5¢

+48% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralRebeka Masarova at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rebeka Masarova

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Bianca Andreescu 57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bianca Andreescu57%

Rebeka Masarova43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bianca Andreescu5 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares7,388

Combined PnL+$101.95

Rebeka Masarova8 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares22,918

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Bianca Andreescu — 38%Rebeka Masarova — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 73¢	$6.9K	$7.1K	+$237.04	58% 3757-2710 (6467)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 73¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$38.32
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 23¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$198.72
65 6512395314597884	Bianca Andreescuavg 72.8¢	$5.1K	$5.3K	+$113.58	51% 3162-3063 (6225)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Rebeka Masarovaavg 27¢	$3.0K	$5.0K	+$2.0K	25% 214-643 (857)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 67.8¢	$3.8K	$3.6K	-$185.01	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 67.8¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	-$593.89
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 25.3¢	$540.97	$949.85	+$408.88
VE VenusianCTR	Rebeka Masarovaavg 32.6¢	$2.0K	$2.7K	+$752.99	25% 213-654 (867)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Rebeka Masarovaavg 29¢	$707.69	$1.1K	+$372.93	18% 72-338 (410)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Rebeka Masarovaavg 27.8¢	$510.14	$816.01	+$305.87	25% 215-633 (848)
BA babybells	Bianca Andreescuavg 74.4¢	$574.86	$587.62	+$12.75	18% 78-366 (444)
VeryLucky888CTR	Rebeka Masarovaavg 25¢	$250	$290	+$40	49% 231-239 (470)
TH thirdt1me	Bianca Andreescuavg 73.6¢	$436.07	$265.68	-$21.39	37% 70-118 (188)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rebeka Masarovaavg 23.4¢	$203.79	$200.72	+$17.34	48% 859-937 (1796)
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 23.4¢	$111.44	$125.96	+$16.83
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 73¢	$74.26	$74.76	+$0.51
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 74.3¢	$165.91	$165.71	-$0.2	56% 3797-2958 (6755)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 74.3¢	$109.49	$90.61	-$18.87
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 28.9¢	$56.42	$75.1	+$18.68
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Rebeka Masarovaavg 26¢	$104	$116	+$12	9% 77-775 (852)
machinelearned<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 76¢	$38	$38	+$0	35% 335-614 (949)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Rebeka Masarovaavg 24.4¢	$13.4	$15.95	+$2.55	48% 421-450 (871)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Rebeka Masarovaavg 23¢	$11.5	$14.5	+$3	52% 62-58 (120)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 77.1¢	$17.02	$14.03	-$3	14% 73-461 (534)

RN1ARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$6,900.6

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$237.04

Record

58%

3757-2710 (6467)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$5,594.7273¢+$38.32

Rebeka Masarova$1,305.8823¢+$198.72

6512395314597884

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$5,138.52

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$113.58

Record

51%

3162-3063 (6225)

LightParadoxCTR

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$3,012.35

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$3,805.13

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$185.01

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$3,264.1667.8¢-$593.89

Rebeka Masarova$540.9725.3¢+$408.88

VenusianCTR

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$1,981.06

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$752.99

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

thestingsnakeCTR

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$707.69

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$372.93

Record

18%

72-338 (410)

MadridTimeCTR

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$510.14

Value

$816.01

PnL

+$305.87

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

babybells

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$574.86

Value

$587.62

PnL

+$12.75

Record

18%

78-366 (444)

VeryLucky888CTR

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$250

Value

$290

PnL

+$40

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

thirdt1me

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$436.07

Value

$265.68

PnL

-$21.39

Record

37%

70-118 (188)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$203.79

Value

$200.72

PnL

+$17.34

Record

48%

859-937 (1796)

Both legs:

Rebeka Masarova$111.4423.4¢+$16.83

Bianca Andreescu$74.2673¢+$0.51

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$165.91

Value

$165.71

PnL

-$0.2

Record

56%

3797-2958 (6755)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$109.4974.3¢-$18.87

Rebeka Masarova$56.4228.9¢+$18.68

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$104

Value

$116

PnL

+$12

Record

77-775 (852)

machinelearned<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$38

Value

$38

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

335-614 (949)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$13.4

Value

$15.95

PnL

+$2.55

Record

48%

421-450 (871)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$11.5

Value

$14.5

PnL

+$3

Record

52%

62-58 (120)

BillBenter2026<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$17.02

Value

$14.03

PnL

-$3

Record

14%

73-461 (534)

Research grade

NeutralRebeka Masarova at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rebeka Masarova

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Bianca Andreescu 57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rebeka Masarova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.