Sopo: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Valentina Mediorreal

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Maria Lourdes Carle (81%) · Maria Lourdes Carle at 94¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 17

Maria Lourdes Carle94¢Valentina Mediorreal6¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maria Lourdes Carle

Consensus Traders

Maria Lourdes Carle 81%

Total Value

$23.7K

Combined PnL

-$593.37

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 93.7¢

-4% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaria Lourdes Carle at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maria Lourdes Carle

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Maria Lourdes Carle94%

Valentina Mediorreal6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maria Lourdes Carle13 traders

Total Value$23.3K

Total Shares24,361

Combined PnL-$527.26

Valentina Mediorreal3 traders

Total Value$395.76

Total Shares15,460

Combined PnL-$66.11

Maria Lourdes Carle — 81%Valentina Mediorreal — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Maria Lourdes Carle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrValentina Mediorreal 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Maria Lourdes Carle 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 97.1¢	$16.6K	$16.1K	-$516.96	25% 224-665 (889)
PA pagliacci4	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 99.2¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$115.18	27% 12-32 (44)
38 38791873984189	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 97.6¢	$2.3K	$1.1K	+$63.08	48% 917-990 (1907)
MA MadridTime	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 98.2¢	$990.85	$838.31	+$6.14	26% 226-645 (871)
LI LightParadox	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 98.4¢	$562.47	$594.91	+$34.79	26% 226-653 (879)
VE Venusian	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 98.5¢	$561.51	$556.76	+$5.69	25% 222-667 (889)
EU Eulhunter	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 97.9¢	$539.94	$535.49	-$4.45	50% 71-71 (142)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Valentina Mediorrealavg 3.2¢	$444.32	$347.12	-$97.19	54% 1637-1401 (3038)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 98.2¢	$256.78	$256.3	-$0.49	56% 3808-2973 (6781)
RN1	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 98.7¢	$187.16	$187.83	+$0.67	58% 3766-2722 (6488)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 98.8¢	$49.79	$48.91	-$0.88	41% 3059-4446 (7505)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 97¢	$48.5	$48.55	+$0.05	2% 8-371 (379)
dips.CTR<$100	Valentina Mediorrealavg 1.3¢	$13.02	$44.64	+$31.62	42% 208-286 (494)
PA Pan9X<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 95.8¢	$19.16	$19.42	+$0.26	49% 433-456 (889)
SE sentrio<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 97.4¢	$10.45	$10.46	+$0.01	31% 174-392 (566)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Valentina Mediorrealavg 0.8¢	$4.54	$4	-$0.54	53% 5438-4880 (10318)

Limousin

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$16,568.5

Value

$16.1K

PnL

-$516.96

Record

25%

224-665 (889)

pagliacci4

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$3,153.95

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$115.18

Record

27%

12-32 (44)

38791873984189

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$2,260.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$63.08

Record

48%

917-990 (1907)

MadridTime

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$990.85

Value

$838.31

PnL

+$6.14

Record

26%

226-645 (871)

LightParadox

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$562.47

Value

$594.91

PnL

+$34.79

Record

26%

226-653 (879)

Venusian

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$561.51

Value

$556.76

PnL

+$5.69

Record

25%

222-667 (889)

Eulhunter

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$539.94

Value

$535.49

PnL

-$4.45

Record

50%

71-71 (142)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Valentina Mediorreal

Invested

$444.32

Value

$347.12

PnL

-$97.19

Record

54%

1637-1401 (3038)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$256.78

Value

$256.3

PnL

-$0.49

Record

56%

3808-2973 (6781)

RN1

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$187.16

Value

$187.83

PnL

+$0.67

Record

58%

3766-2722 (6488)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$49.79

Value

$48.91

PnL

-$0.88

Record

41%

3059-4446 (7505)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$48.5

Value

$48.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

8-371 (379)

dips.CTR<$100

Valentina Mediorreal

Invested

$13.02

Value

$44.64

PnL

+$31.62

Record

42%

208-286 (494)

Pan9X<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$19.16

Value

$19.42

PnL

+$0.26

Record

49%

433-456 (889)

sentrio<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$10.45

Value

$10.46

PnL

+$0.01

Record

31%

174-392 (566)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Valentina Mediorreal

Invested

$4.54

Value

PnL

-$0.54

Record

53%

5438-4880 (10318)

Research grade

NeutralMaria Lourdes Carle at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Maria Lourdes Carle

13 of 16 top traders (81%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Maria Lourdes Carle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrValentina Mediorreal 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Maria Lourdes Carle 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maria Lourdes Carle wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.