Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 97¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 31

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

Total Value

$18.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

81.9¢ → 97.4¢

+19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$18.7K

Total Shares18,882

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$156.2

Total Shares18,376

Combined PnL$-3.7K

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

319h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

27 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
eCash	Noavg 83.5¢	$15.2K	$17.4K	+$2.2K	68% 331-155 (486)
JE Jest55	Noavg 60.9¢	$582.77	$909.78	+$350.84	75% 1028-338 (1366)
clazzy1	Noavg 59.5¢	$179.45	$286.81	+$107.36	62% 413-249 (662)
AR Arman2CTR	Yesavg 17.6¢	$2.7K	$126.22	$-2.5K	58% 332-242 (574)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 54.3¢	$40.89	$64.91	+$24.02	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 73.9¢	$32.41	$36.31	+$3.89	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 95¢	$15.97	$16.68	+$0.71	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 38.2¢	$688.04	$15.29	-$672.74	57% 1114-837 (1951)
ME melonmanm<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$2.6	$4.36	+$1.76	65% 527-282 (809)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$165	$4.25	-$160.75	40% 704-1062 (1766)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$242	$3.7	-$235.46	68% 2074-958 (3032)
tetraseCTR	Yesavg 43.8¢	$145.02	$3.18	-$141.84	61% 839-544 (1383)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.1¢	$49.98	$2.11	-$47.89	69% 156-69 (225)
UdonsanCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$10.8	$1.22	-$9.57	79% 250-67 (317)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.8¢	$8	$0.22	-$7.78	50% 970-988 (1958)

eCash

Invested

$15,170.5

Value

$17.4K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

Jest55

Invested

$582.77

Value

$909.78

PnL

+$350.84

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

clazzy1

Invested

$179.45

Value

$286.81

PnL

+$107.36

Record

62%

413-249 (662)

Arman2CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,724.38

Value

$126.22

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

58%

332-242 (574)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$40.89

Value

$64.91

PnL

+$24.02

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$32.41

Value

$36.31

PnL

+$3.89

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$15.97

Value

$16.68

PnL

+$0.71

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$688.04

Value

$15.29

PnL

-$672.74

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

melonmanm<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$4.36

PnL

+$1.76

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$165

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$160.75

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$242

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$235.46

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

tetraseCTR

Yes

Invested

$145.02

Value

$3.18

PnL

-$141.84

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.98

Value

$2.11

PnL

-$47.89

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

UdonsanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.8

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$9.57

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$7.78

Record

50%

970-988 (1958)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

319h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

27 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.