Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (59%) · No at 92¢ · $52K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 59%

Total Value

$52.3K

Combined PnL

$984.09

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 91.5¢

+6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$48.6K

Total Shares53,147

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares42,707

Combined PnL$-1.4K

No — 59%Yes — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 63% · 8

Aligned

sharpNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 62% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MEPP	Noavg 84.4¢	$12.1K	$13.1K	+$997.17	64% 633-352 (985)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 85.8¢	$12.6K	$12.8K	+$717.71	77% 632-185 (817)
Valen9	Noavg 88.8¢	$11.5K	$11.9K	+$350.14	60% 407-274 (681)
DE denizz	Noavg 85.4¢	$4.0K	$4.2K	+$163.12	68% 597-284 (881)
tetrase	Noavg 89.7¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$82.13	61% 839-544 (1383)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$4.7K	$3.4K	$-1.3K	56% 973-770 (1743)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 88.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$6.74	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
WongKimArk	Noavg 84.7¢	$423.5	$457.5	+$34	63% 217-127 (344)
Porx<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$74.97	$77.78	+$2.81	66% 1482-769 (2251)
HU hugecaulkCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$69	$70.5	+$1.5	— 2-12 (14)
GonTanaka<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$64.39	$69.54	+$5.15	57% 173-128 (301)
GollumGekkoCTR	Yesavg 18.3¢	$132.38	$61.5	-$70.88	68% 2074-958 (3032)
GayPrideCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.2¢	$76	$42.5	-$33.5	49% 357-367 (724)
randomWalkingShrimpCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.9¢	$7.95	$4.25	-$3.7	77% 1204-366 (1570)
aenews2CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$6.01	$3.59	-$2.42	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 77¢	$2.26	$2.69	+$0.43	72% 1535-585 (2120)
0X 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$3.49	$2.47	-$1.02	49% 112-118 (230)

MEPP

Invested

$12,121.82

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$997.17

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

alwaysOn

Invested

$12,627.71

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$717.71

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

Valen9

Invested

$11,546.54

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$350.14

Record

60%

407-274 (681)

denizz

Invested

$4,048.11

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$163.12

Record

68%

597-284 (881)

tetrase

Invested

$4,118.9

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$82.13

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,697.1

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$1,759.38

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$6.74

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

WongKimArk

Invested

$423.5

Value

$457.5

PnL

+$34

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

Porx<$100

Invested

$74.97

Value

$77.78

PnL

+$2.81

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

hugecaulkCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69

Value

$70.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

—

2-12 (14)

GonTanaka<$100

Invested

$64.39

Value

$69.54

PnL

+$5.15

Record

57%

173-128 (301)

GollumGekkoCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.38

Value

$61.5

PnL

-$70.88

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

GayPrideCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76

Value

$42.5

PnL

-$33.5

Record

49%

357-367 (724)

randomWalkingShrimpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.95

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$3.7

Record

77%

1204-366 (1570)

aenews2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.01

Value

$3.59

PnL

-$2.42

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.69

PnL

+$0.43

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.49

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$1.02

Record

49%

112-118 (230)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 63% · 8

Aligned

sharpNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 62% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.5%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.