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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
00gringo000x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343BreakTheBankndb1
Record (consensus markets)no settled market46% (584–674, n=1258)45% (549–663, n=1212)65% (876–462, n=1338)
Consensus PnL—$85K$11.2M$4.2M
Tracked as—PM monthly #38PM monthly #2PM monthly #11
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position72% (225 of 311 open)67% (29 of 43 open)79% (19 of 24 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic—Elections ±0 pts, n=286—NFL −10 pts, n=132
Settled positions, side won—61% of 1803 at avg 61¢, ROI +4%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢—36% (won 1% of 648)10% (won 81% of 57)13% (won 16% of 160)
Entries 30–50¢—3% (won 40% of 55)36% (won 98% of 201)20% (won 40% of 253)
Entries 50–70¢—2% (won 69% of 45)35% (won 99% of 196)24% (won 57% of 310)
Entries 70¢ and up—59% (won 99% of 1055)19% (won 100% of 109)43% (won 93% of 544)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

6 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market00gringo000x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343BreakTheBankndb1
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $123No $56K—
Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $45Yes $51K—
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $6Yes $22K—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $42Yes $9.2K—
Will Republicans win Alaska and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $42Yes $4.1K—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $72Yes $602—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $59Yes $311—
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $42No $42K—
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
—No $846No $31K—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $42No $11K—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $43No $6.8K—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
—No $44No $3.4K—
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
—No $2No $2—