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PolyConsensus
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Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankFlaznorpMKSafe
Record (consensus markets)57% (4473–3354, n=7827)46% (560–666, n=1226)53% (5927–5304, n=11231)61% (11–7, n=18)
Consensus PnL$8.9M$11.2M$3.3M$3.9K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #344PM monthly #2PM monthly #21PM monthly #259
Sides with the consensus69% (11 of 16 open)48% (10 of 21 open)65% (203 of 311 open)28% (5 of 18 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
  • Tennis +14 pts n=49, ROI +25%
  • NHL +9 pts n=57, ROI +13%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134—Other Sports −13 pts, n=22—
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%56% of 1482 at avg 54¢, ROI +28%35% of 20 at avg 34¢, ROI +12%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)10% (won 81% of 57)29% (won 11% of 423)50% (won 10% of 10)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)36% (won 98% of 201)16% (won 40% of 243)20% (won 75% of 4)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)35% (won 99% of 196)17% (won 62% of 255)15% (won 33% of 3)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)19% (won 100% of 109)38% (won 94% of 561)15% (won 67% of 3)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankFlaznorpMKSafe
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $45KNo $15K——
Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev
same side · consensus Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev $31K—Daniil Medvedev $5.5K—
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $372Yes $18K——
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-11-05?
same side · consensus No
No $11K—No $5.2K—
Rolex Paris Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Rinky Hijikata
same side · consensus Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic $9.6K—Novak Djokovic $4.0K—
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-11-04?
same side · consensus No
No $1.1K—No $727—