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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 0x498d2... | BreakTheBank | 00gringo00 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 64% (7–4, n=11) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | -$3.9K | $10.6M | $3.5M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #978 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 78% (7 of 9 open) | 72% (79 of 110 open) | no open consensus position | 62% (26 of 42 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled | none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | Elections −4 pts, n=10 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 60% of 10 at avg 64¢, ROI +1% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 30% (won 67% of 3) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 0% | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 30% (won 0% of 3) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 40% (won 100% of 4) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 0x498d2... | BreakTheBank | 00gringo00 | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $51K | — | Ravens $696 |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $24K | — | Jets $284 |
| Spread: Bills (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $2.1K | — | Ravens $376 |
| Ravens vs. Bills same side · consensus Bills | — | Bills $378K | — | Bills $395 |
| Raiders vs. Jets same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $171K | — | Raiders $5.8K |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus No | Yes $11K | Yes $82K | — | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $33K | Yes $51K | — | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) same side · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $3.0K | — | Cardinals $1.1K |