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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
Add:0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188RN1beachboy4joseph006770xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CORGII
| 0x53757615de1c42b83f893b79d4241a009dc2aeea | surfandturf | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 41% (1101–1610, n=2711) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $2.9M | $4.1M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #410 | was PM monthly #326 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 53% (31 of 58 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 90% (146 of 163 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| ||
| Weakest topic | College Basketball −9 pts, n=137 | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 40% of 3652 at avg 41¢, ROI −3% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 34% (won 6% of 1254) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 25% (won 36% of 922) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 29% (won 64% of 1045) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 12% (won 89% of 431) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
7 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 0x53757615de1c42b83f893b79d4241a009dc2aeea | surfandturf | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $3.3K | — | Yes $274K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $214 | — | No $202K |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus No | Yes $348 | — | Yes $85K |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $3.6K | — | Yes $31K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $850 | — | No $30K |
| Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $897 | — | Yes $22K |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $161 | — | Yes $2.6K |
| Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $9 | — | Yes $230 |