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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| 0xdc3E831cad | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 40% (1047–1550, n=2597) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $90K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #289 + pinned | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 81% (58 of 72 open) | 48% (12 of 25 open) | 79% (57 of 72 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Geopolitics ±0 pts, n=261 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 42% of 3268 at avg 41¢, ROI +2% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 56% (won 7% of 1835) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 45% of 120) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 63% of 126) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 95% of 1187) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | 0xdc3E831cad | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Commanders | — | Eagles $2.3K | Commanders $32K | — |
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? same side · consensus No | No $1.5K | — | No $622K | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $3.6K | Commanders $161K | — |